Italy vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 70¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 88%
1 arb excluded
$3.8K
$58.54
61.2¢ → 69.5¢
+14% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Underavg 60.8¢ | $1.7K | $1.8K | +$33.47 | 56% 4503-3474 (7977) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 60.1¢ | $802.56 | $814.99 | +$12.44 | 60% 675-453 (1128) |
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 64.7¢ | $690.91 | $650.94 | +$12.42 | 51% 2573-2489 (5062) |
SN SnakeBall | Underavg 61¢ | $331.63 | $331.63 | +$0 | 46% 443-515 (958) |
38 38791873984189ARB<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $234.45 | $213.15 | +$12.08 | 48% 2255-2437 (4692) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 60¢ | $120.01 | $127.01 | +$8.59 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 35¢ | $82.65 | $86.14 | +$3.49 | |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 60.4¢ | $15.43 | $15.57 | +$0.14 | 54% 997-856 (1853) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $3.35 | $3.43 | +$0.08 | 49% 1261-1293 (2554) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $2.05 | $2.05 | -$0 | 41% 562-807 (1369) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Underavg 61¢ | $1.72 | $1.72 | -$0 | 52% 192-174 (366) |
RN1Invested
$1,737.31
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$33.47
Record
56%
4503-3474 (7977)
Invested
$802.56
Value
$814.99
PnL
+$12.44
Record
60%
675-453 (1128)
Invested
$690.91
Value
$650.94
PnL
+$12.42
Record
51%
2573-2489 (5062)
Invested
$331.63
Value
$331.63
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
443-515 (958)
Invested
$234.45
Value
$213.15
PnL
+$12.08
Record
48%
2255-2437 (4692)
Both legs:
Invested
$15.43
Value
$15.57
PnL
+$0.14
Record
54%
997-856 (1853)
Invested
$3.35
Value
$3.43
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
1261-1293 (2554)
Invested
$2.05
Value
$2.05
PnL
-$0
Record
41%
562-807 (1369)
Invested
$1.72
Value
$1.72
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
192-174 (366)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.