Italy vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$243.83

Smart Money Entry

80.2¢ → 100¢

+25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,193

Combined PnL+$423.83

Under9 traders

Total Value$157.26

Total Shares1,160

Combined PnL-$179.99

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lonmi2511	Overavg 71¢	$710	$999.5	+$289.5	60% 677-456 (1133)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540	Overavg 99¢	$588.63	$594.28	+$5.65	86% 51-8 (59)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 80.6¢	$255.16	$316.5	+$61.34	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 73¢	$201.75	$272.98	+$71.23	46% 485-564 (1049)
AN anyjezzCTR	Underavg 27¢	$112.09	$132.85	+$20.76	26% 7-20 (27)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$17.5	$22.4	+$4.9	54% 211-181 (392)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 69¢	$20.02	$16.13	-$3.9	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.31	$1.67	+$0.37	54% 1032-892 (1924)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 31.6¢	$98.86	$0.16	-$98.7	34% 592-1164 (1756)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$48.72	$0.08	-$48.64	33% 563-1169 (1732)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 30¢	$47.1	$0.08	-$47.02	32% 565-1192 (1757)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 32¢	$8.96	$0.01	-$8.95	33% 585-1187 (1772)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$1.66	$0	-$1.66	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
MO mouzsynapseCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$1.05	$0	-$1.05	40% 69-102 (171)

lonmi2511

Over

Invested

$710

Value

$999.5

PnL

+$289.5

Record

60%

677-456 (1133)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540

Over

Invested

$588.63

Value

$594.28

PnL

+$5.65

Record

86%

51-8 (59)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$255.16

Value

$316.5

PnL

+$61.34

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$201.75

Value

$272.98

PnL

+$71.23

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

anyjezzCTR

Under

Invested

$112.09

Value

$132.85

PnL

+$20.76

Record

26%

7-20 (27)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$17.5

Value

$22.4

PnL

+$4.9

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$20.02

Value

$16.13

PnL

-$3.9

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.31

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$0.37

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$98.86

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$98.7

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$48.72

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$48.64

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$47.1

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$47.02

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.96

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.95

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.66

Value

PnL

-$1.66

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

mouzsynapseCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.05

Value

PnL

-$1.05

Record

40%

69-102 (171)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 72%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 78% · 9

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.