Exact Score: Italy 3 - 3 France?
6 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 98¢ · $792 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 50%
$791.83
$35.14
97.9¢ → 97.9¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 12 top traders (50%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-36 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 97.9¢ | $487.36 | $486.21 | -$1.15 | 56% 4529-3502 (8031) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 98.4¢ | $68.77 | $71.51 | +$2.74 | 33% 585-1187 (1772) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 97.7¢ | $65.81 | $65.81 | +$0 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
DV dv-pmCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $25.92 | $56.7 | +$30.78 | 45% 13-16 (29) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $39.52 | $39.34 | -$0.18 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 96.4¢ | $38.55 | $39.07 | +$0.52 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.8¢ | $19.48 | $16.19 | -$3.3 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 96.5¢ | $5.79 | $5.87 | +$0.08 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $2.54 | $5.56 | +$3.02 | 32% 565-1192 (1757) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.6¢ | $1.52 | $3.33 | +$1.81 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $1.16 | $1.91 | +$0.75 | 35% 221-416 (637) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.27 | $0.35 | +$0.08 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
RN1Invested
$487.36
Value
$486.21
PnL
-$1.15
Record
56%
4529-3502 (8031)
Invested
$68.77
Value
$71.51
PnL
+$2.74
Record
33%
585-1187 (1772)
Invested
$65.81
Value
$65.81
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$25.92
Value
$56.7
PnL
+$30.78
Record
45%
13-16 (29)
Invested
$39.52
Value
$39.34
PnL
-$0.18
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
Invested
$38.55
Value
$39.07
PnL
+$0.52
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$19.48
Value
$16.19
PnL
-$3.3
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$5.79
Value
$5.87
PnL
+$0.08
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
Invested
$2.54
Value
$5.56
PnL
+$3.02
Record
32%
565-1192 (1757)
Invested
$1.52
Value
$3.33
PnL
+$1.81
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$1.16
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$0.75
Record
35%
221-416 (637)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.35
PnL
+$0.08
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.