Exact Score: Italy 3 - 2 France?

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 97¢ · $892 held · ended Nov 12

Yes3¢No97¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 33%

Total Value

$891.59

Combined PnL

-$8.4

Smart Money Entry

98.5¢ → 96.6¢

-2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$827.38

Total Shares848

Combined PnL-$21.58

Yes8 traders

Total Value$64.21

Total Shares2,554

Combined PnL+$13.17

No — 33%Yes — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 98.6¢	$704.99	$689.26	-$15.73	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 98.5¢	$692.12	$66.79	-$7.79	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$48.19	$49.53	+$1.34	32% 565-1192 (1757)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 2¢	$12.82	$23.34	+$10.53	46% 485-564 (1049)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$21.2	$21.8	+$0.6	33% 585-1187 (1772)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$12.4	$16.77	+$4.37	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$14.79	-$4.28	— 2-10 (12)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$2.54	$5.39	+$2.85	35% 221-416 (637)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$1.05	$1.46	+$0.41	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.71	$1.33	-$0.38	33% 563-1169 (1732)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$1.18	$0.92	-$0.26	34% 592-1164 (1756)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.27	$0.21	-$0.06	54% 1032-892 (1924)

RN1

Invested

$704.99

Value

$689.26

PnL

-$15.73

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

38791873984189

Invested

$692.12

Value

$66.79

PnL

-$7.79

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$48.19

Value

$49.53

PnL

+$1.34

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.82

Value

$23.34

PnL

+$10.53

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$21.2

Value

$21.8

PnL

+$0.6

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.4

Value

$16.77

PnL

+$4.37

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$14.79

PnL

-$4.28

Record

—

2-10 (12)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.54

Value

$5.39

PnL

+$2.85

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.46

PnL

+$0.41

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.33

PnL

-$0.38

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.18

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$0.26

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.21

PnL

-$0.06

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (12 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 75% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.7%

96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.34

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.