Exact Score: Italy 2 - 2 France?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (30%) · No at 95¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 30%

Total Value

$1.5K

Combined PnL

$107.55

Smart Money Entry

93¢ → 94.5¢

+2% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No95%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares1,447

Combined PnL+$7.28

Yes7 traders

Total Value$185.84

Total Shares2,627

Combined PnL+$100.27

No — 30%Yes — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-70 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 93¢	$662.26	$665.86	+$3.61	46% 443-515 (958)
GC GC-P	Noavg 93¢	$451.15	$453.58	+$2.43	26% 153-428 (581)
NM NM-P	Noavg 93¢	$232.5	$233.75	+$1.25	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$140	+$85.95	— 2-10 (12)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.56	$25.98	+$14.92	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$8.84	$8.21	-$0.63	32% 542-1134 (1676)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$6.63	$5.68	-$0.95	33% 539-1116 (1655)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$3.3	$3.85	+$0.55	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$1.42	$1.42	+$0	47% 1666-1892 (3558)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.27	$0.7	+$0.43	54% 997-856 (1853)

SnakeBall

Invested

$662.26

Value

$665.86

PnL

+$3.61

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

GC-P

Invested

$451.15

Value

$453.58

PnL

+$2.43

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

NM-P

Invested

$232.5

Value

$233.75

PnL

+$1.25

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$140

PnL

+$85.95

Record

—

2-10 (12)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.56

Value

$25.98

PnL

+$14.92

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.84

Value

$8.21

PnL

-$0.63

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.63

Value

$5.68

PnL

-$0.95

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.3

Value

$3.85

PnL

+$0.55

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.42

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.43

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 95%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-70 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 67% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.7%

94.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.48

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.