Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Italy 2 - 1 France?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 6.9¢ · $601 held · ends Nov 12

Yes7¢No93¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$600.61

Combined PnL

$147.41

Smart Money Entry

5.7¢ → 6.9¢

+20% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes7%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$600.61

Total Shares8,719

Combined PnL+$147.41

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$355.79	$409.16	+$53.37	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$61.31	+$83.5	— 2-9 (11)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$39.24	$45.13	+$5.89	50% 1226-1249 (2475)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$45.31	$44.98	-$0.33	33% 551-1131 (1682)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$20.59	$20.44	-$0.15	33% 533-1106 (1639)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.24	$8.28	+$5.04	48% 2153-2339 (4492)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$8.34	$8.28	-$0.06	32% 536-1124 (1660)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.9¢	$2.71	$2.73	+$0.02	33% 556-1107 (1663)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$0.16	$0.3	+$0.14	53% 925-815 (1740)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$355.79

Value

$409.16

PnL

+$53.37

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$61.31

PnL

+$83.5

Record

—

2-9 (11)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.24

Value

$45.13

PnL

+$5.89

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.31

Value

$44.98

PnL

-$0.33

Record

33%

551-1131 (1682)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.59

Value

$20.44

PnL

-$0.15

Record

33%

533-1106 (1639)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$8.28

PnL

+$5.04

Record

48%

2153-2339 (4492)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.34

Value

$8.28

PnL

-$0.06

Record

32%

536-1124 (1660)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.73

PnL

+$0.02

Record

33%

556-1107 (1663)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.16

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

925-815 (1740)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.2%

6.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1117.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

1217.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.