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4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 96¢ · $67 held · ends Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$67.17

Combined PnL

$0.78

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$65.42

Total Shares65

Combined PnL+$0.7

Yes1 trader

Total Value$1.73

Total Shares55

Combined PnL+$0.08

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$21.21	$21.31	+$0.1	59% 3533-2406 (5939)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 96.4¢	$19.08	$19.17	+$0.09	27% 151-418 (569)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 96.6¢	$17.7	$17.74	+$0.05	53% 866-756 (1622)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 97¢	$50.93	$7.21	+$0.46	48% 1999-2208 (4207)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$1.65	$1.73	+$0.08	51% 2468-2344 (4812)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$21.21

Value

$21.31

PnL

+$0.1

Record

59%

3533-2406 (5939)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$19.08

Value

$19.17

PnL

+$0.09

Record

27%

151-418 (569)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$17.7

Value

$17.74

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

866-756 (1622)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$50.93

Value

$7.21

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

1999-2208 (4207)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.65

Value

$1.73

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

2468-2344 (4812)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 62%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 62% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 80% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.