Exact Score: Italy 1 - 5 France?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$1.8K
-$41.66
98.9¢ → 98.8¢
+0% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-12 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 99¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | -$3.35 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 98.9¢ | $351.26 | $350.55 | -$0.71 | 34% 592-1164 (1756) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $88.52 | $88.34 | -$0.18 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $26 | -$28.05 | — 2-10 (12) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $17.46 | $8.4 | -$9.06 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $1.2 | $1.04 | -$0.16 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.27 | $0.13 | -$0.14 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.5¢ | $0.02 | $0.02 | -$0 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
Invested
$1,325.6
Value
$1.3K
PnL
-$3.35
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
Invested
$351.26
Value
$350.55
PnL
-$0.71
Record
34%
592-1164 (1756)
Invested
$88.52
Value
$88.34
PnL
-$0.18
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$26
PnL
-$28.05
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$17.46
Value
$8.4
PnL
-$9.06
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$1.2
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$0.16
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$0.13
PnL
-$0.14
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$0.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.