Exact Score: Italy 1 - 4 France?

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (44%) · No at 96¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes4¢No96¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 44%

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

-$5.3

Smart Money Entry

97.7¢ → 96.4¢

-1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares2,271

Combined PnL-$37.76

Yes5 traders

Total Value$116.72

Total Shares2,833

Combined PnL+$32.46

No — 44%Yes — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.4¢	$753.82	$766.64	+$12.81	46% 485-564 (1049)
VE Venusian	Noavg 97.9¢	$698.46	$672.12	-$26.34	32% 565-1192 (1757)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 97.9¢	$480.24	$462.11	-$18.13	33% 585-1187 (1772)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.4¢	$312.65	$306.55	-$6.1	34% 592-1164 (1756)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$74	+$19.95	— 2-10 (12)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$72.01	$30.72	+$9.98	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$6.67	$6.52	-$0.15	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$2.73	$5.16	+$2.68	54% 1032-892 (1924)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.6¢	$0.33	$0.32	-$0.01	49% 1307-1343 (2650)

SnakeBall

Invested

$753.82

Value

$766.64

PnL

+$12.81

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

Venusian

Invested

$698.46

Value

$672.12

PnL

-$26.34

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

LightParadox

Invested

$480.24

Value

$462.11

PnL

-$18.13

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

MadridTime

Invested

$312.65

Value

$306.55

PnL

-$6.1

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$74

PnL

+$19.95

Record

—

2-10 (12)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$72.01

Value

$30.72

PnL

+$9.98

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.52

PnL

-$0.15

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.73

Value

$5.16

PnL

+$2.68

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.33

Value

$0.32

PnL

-$0.01

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 65%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.5%

96.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.59

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.