Exact Score: Italy 1 - 3 France?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 100%
$1.0K
$9.45
93.8¢ → 94.4¢
+1% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+28 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 71%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
88% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93.8¢ | $501.74 | $505.12 | +$3.39 | 46% 420-485 (905) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 93.5¢ | $216.51 | $218.27 | +$1.76 | 51% 2468-2344 (4812) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 94.3¢ | $66.01 | $66.08 | +$0.07 | 32% 522-1096 (1618) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 94.4¢ | $53.29 | $56.66 | +$3.37 | 48% 1999-2208 (4207) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $51.19 | $51.41 | +$0.22 | 59% 3533-2406 (5939) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $50.24 | $50.64 | +$0.4 | 53% 866-756 (1622) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 93.9¢ | $41.17 | $41.34 | +$0.18 | 27% 151-418 (569) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $22.87 | $22.94 | +$0.07 | 32% 524-1101 (1625) |
Invested
$501.74
Value
$505.12
PnL
+$3.39
Record
46%
420-485 (905)
Invested
$216.51
Value
$218.27
PnL
+$1.76
Record
51%
2468-2344 (4812)
Invested
$66.01
Value
$66.08
PnL
+$0.07
Record
32%
522-1096 (1618)
Invested
$53.29
Value
$56.66
PnL
+$3.37
Record
48%
1999-2208 (4207)
Invested
$51.19
Value
$51.41
PnL
+$0.22
Record
59%
3533-2406 (5939)
Invested
$50.24
Value
$50.64
PnL
+$0.4
Record
53%
866-756 (1622)
Invested
$41.17
Value
$41.34
PnL
+$0.18
Record
27%
151-418 (569)
Invested
$22.87
Value
$22.94
PnL
+$0.07
Record
32%
524-1101 (1625)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.