Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Italy 1 - 0 France?

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (90%) · Yes at 6.1¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 12

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 90%

Total Value

$193.28

Combined PnL

$62.06

Smart Money Entry

3.7¢ → 6.1¢

+66% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$164.96

Total Shares2,899

Combined PnL+$58.63

No1 trader

Total Value$28.32

Total Shares30

Combined PnL+$3.43

Yes — 90%No — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$112	+$57.95	— 2-9 (11)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 94.4¢	$141.65	$28.32	+$3.43	48% 2064-2270 (4334)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$21.45	$21.77	+$0.32	32% 522-1096 (1618)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.8¢	$9.83	$10.33	+$0.5	33% 544-1092 (1636)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$8.35	$7.79	-$0.56	32% 528-1110 (1638)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.4¢	$4.73	$4.89	+$0.16	46% 433-502 (935)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.7¢	$3.99	$3.92	-$0.07	33% 541-1119 (1660)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.5¢	$2.71	$2.76	+$0.05	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 5.6¢	$0.95	$0.95	+$0	50% 1206-1230 (2436)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$0.27	$0.56	+$0.29	53% 905-797 (1702)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$112

PnL

+$57.95

Record

—

2-9 (11)

38791873984189

Invested

$141.65

Value

$28.32

PnL

+$3.43

Record

48%

2064-2270 (4334)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.45

Value

$21.77

PnL

+$0.32

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.83

Value

$10.33

PnL

+$0.5

Record

33%

544-1092 (1636)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.35

Value

$7.79

PnL

-$0.56

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.73

Value

$4.89

PnL

+$0.16

Record

46%

433-502 (935)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.99

Value

$3.92

PnL

-$0.07

Record

33%

541-1119 (1660)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$2.76

PnL

+$0.05

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.95

Value

$0.95

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.27

Value

$0.56

PnL

+$0.29

Record

53%

905-797 (1702)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.4%

6.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1245.93

Max Loss

-$100.00

1345.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.