Exact Score: Italy 0 - 3 France?
4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $607 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 33%
$607.38
$168.46
88.8¢ → 100¢
+13% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 12 top traders (33%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-67 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 59%
Freshness
Fresh
2h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh | Noavg 88.2¢ | $132.3 | $149.93 | +$17.63 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 89.8¢ | $111.24 | $123.33 | +$12.09 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 89.5¢ | $95.47 | $106.61 | +$11.15 | 35% 221-416 (637) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 87.3¢ | $76.82 | $87.96 | +$11.13 | 44% 431-541 (972) |
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $54.05 | $69.64 | +$69.32 | — 2-10 (12) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.4¢ | $23.39 | $53.73 | +$30.34 | 33% 563-1169 (1732) |
 nigiri99CTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.1¢ | $3.73 | $9.19 | +$5.46 | 52% 367-339 (706) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $276.56 | $5.92 | +$22.31 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $0.27 | $1.01 | +$0.74 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 9.9¢ | $9.7 | $0.05 | -$9.65 | 56% 4529-3502 (8031) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.6¢ | $2.02 | $0.02 | -$2 | 33% 585-1187 (1772) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $0.05 | $0 | -$0.05 | 46% 485-564 (1049) |
poshposhInvested
$132.3
Value
$149.93
PnL
+$17.63
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
Invested
$111.24
Value
$123.33
PnL
+$12.09
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$95.47
Value
$106.61
PnL
+$11.15
Record
35%
221-416 (637)
Invested
$76.82
Value
$87.96
PnL
+$11.13
Record
44%
431-541 (972)
Invested
$54.05
Value
$69.64
PnL
+$69.32
Record
—
2-10 (12)
Invested
$23.39
Value
$53.73
PnL
+$30.34
Record
33%
563-1169 (1732)
nigiri99CTR<$100Invested
$3.73
Value
$9.19
PnL
+$5.46
Record
52%
367-339 (706)
Invested
$276.56
Value
$5.92
PnL
+$22.31
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$0.27
Value
$1.01
PnL
+$0.74
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$9.7
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$9.65
Record
56%
4529-3502 (8031)
Invested
$2.02
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$2
Record
33%
585-1187 (1772)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0
PnL
-$0.05
Record
46%
485-564 (1049)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.