Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 4 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Italy 0 - 2 France?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $304 held · ends Nov 12

Yes8¢No92¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

Total Value

$303.95

Combined PnL

$112.92

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes8%

No93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$177.73

Total Shares2,228

Combined PnL+$111.83

No4 traders

Total Value$126.22

Total Shares127

Combined PnL+$1.09

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$160	+$105.95	— 2-9 (11)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 92¢	$94.88	$95.39	+$0.52	26% 152-427 (579)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 92¢	$17.39	$17.39	+$0	51% 2526-2431 (4957)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.24	$9.6	+$6.36	48% 2125-2324 (4449)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 91¢	$7.36	$7.97	+$0.61	53% 922-814 (1736)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.61	$7.13	-$0.48	47% 1541-1714 (3255)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 92¢	$5.5	$5.47	-$0.03	41% 543-780 (1323)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1	$1	+$0	50% 1226-1249 (2475)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$160

PnL

+$105.95

Record

—

2-9 (11)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$94.88

Value

$95.39

PnL

+$0.52

Record

26%

152-427 (579)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$17.39

Value

$17.39

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2526-2431 (4957)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$6.36

Record

48%

2125-2324 (4449)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.36

Value

$7.97

PnL

+$0.61

Record

53%

922-814 (1736)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.61

Value

$7.13

PnL

-$0.48

Record

47%

1541-1714 (3255)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$5.47

PnL

-$0.03

Record

41%

543-780 (1323)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

1226-1249 (2475)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 8%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.9%

7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1025.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

1125.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.