Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (92%). 8 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Italy 0 - 1 France?

8 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (89%) · Yes at 8.5¢ · $221 held · ends Nov 12

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 89%

Total Value

$220.9

Combined PnL

$113.02

Smart Money Entry

5.7¢ → 8.5¢

+48% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No92%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$182.47

Total Shares2,275

Combined PnL+$113.23

No1 trader

Total Value$38.43

Total Shares42

Combined PnL-$0.21

Yes — 89%No — 11%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$81.95	+$115.7	— 2-10 (12)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$64.38	$57.23	-$7.15	33% 534-1108 (1642)
FO Forecastication2<$100	Noavg 92¢	$38.64	$38.43	-$0.21	44% 165-210 (375)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$19.06	$16.94	-$2.12	32% 538-1125 (1663)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.24	$9.6	+$6.36	48% 2191-2368 (4559)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$8.2	$8.2	+$0	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$6.24	$6.63	+$0.39	26% 152-428 (580)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1	$1	+$0	49% 1228-1254 (2482)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.87	$0.92	+$0.05	41% 544-784 (1328)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$81.95

PnL

+$115.7

Record

—

2-10 (12)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.38

Value

$57.23

PnL

-$7.15

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

Forecastication2<$100

Invested

$38.64

Value

$38.43

PnL

-$0.21

Record

44%

165-210 (375)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.06

Value

$16.94

PnL

-$2.12

Record

32%

538-1125 (1663)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.24

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$6.36

Record

48%

2191-2368 (4559)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.2

Value

$8.2

PnL

+$0

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.24

Value

$6.63

PnL

+$0.39

Record

26%

152-428 (580)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

49%

1228-1254 (2482)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.87

Value

$0.92

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 9 top traders (89%)Underdog side (market favors No 92%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

89% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 83% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.