Will Italy vs. France end in a draw?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 76¢ · $449 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$449.36
$3.44
74.9¢ → 75.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
11h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 75¢ | $262.17 | $263.92 | +$1.75 | 60% 3431-2329 (5760) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 75¢ | $130.83 | $131.7 | +$0.87 | 14% 56-341 (397) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $24.86 | $25.36 | +$0.5 | 48% 644-687 (1331) |
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15.1 | +$0.1 | 50% 1318-1340 (2658) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $9.32 | $9.51 | +$0.19 | 52% 210-197 (407) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $3.75 | $3.78 | +$0.02 | 27% 137-362 (499) |
Invested
$262.17
Value
$263.92
PnL
+$1.75
Record
60%
3431-2329 (5760)
Invested
$130.83
Value
$131.7
PnL
+$0.87
Record
14%
56-341 (397)
Invested
$24.86
Value
$25.36
PnL
+$0.5
Record
48%
644-687 (1331)
Invested
$15
Value
$15.1
PnL
+$0.1
Record
50%
1318-1340 (2658)
Invested
$9.32
Value
$9.51
PnL
+$0.19
Record
52%
210-197 (407)
Invested
$3.75
Value
$3.78
PnL
+$0.02
Record
27%
137-362 (499)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.