Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (60%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Italy vs. France: Both Teams to Score
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 41¢ · $993 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$992.95
-$11.09
39.4¢ → 40.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 41%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 60%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $883.55 | $873.5 | -$10.04 | 51% 1779-1735 (3514) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 39¢ | $53.43 | $53.43 | -$0 | 48% 1202-1284 (2486) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.8¢ | $38.89 | $38.06 | -$0.83 | 37% 325-557 (882) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.2¢ | $23.78 | $23.67 | -$0.11 | 54% 512-439 (951) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Noavg 40¢ | $4.39 | $4.28 | -$0.11 | 46% 255-304 (559) |
Invested
$883.55
Value
$873.5
PnL
-$10.04
Record
51%
1779-1735 (3514)
Invested
$53.43
Value
$53.43
PnL
-$0
Record
48%
1202-1284 (2486)
Invested
$38.89
Value
$38.06
PnL
-$0.83
Record
37%
325-557 (882)
Invested
$23.78
Value
$23.67
PnL
-$0.11
Record
54%
512-439 (951)
Invested
$4.39
Value
$4.28
PnL
-$0.11
Record
46%
255-304 (559)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
40.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.