Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (51%). 5 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Croatia vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Under (42%) · Under at 50¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Over51¢Under49¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$1.8

Smart Money Entry

65.6¢ → 49.5¢

-25% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over51%

Under50%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares2,880

Combined PnL-$19.61

Over7 traders

Total Value$563.29

Total Shares1,592

Combined PnL+$17.8

Under — 42%Over — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR	Underavg 65.9¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	-$15	52% 12-11 (23)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 65¢	$552.5	$552.5	+$0	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 34¢	$417.08	$429.35	+$12.27	38% 1406-2304 (3710)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 65.6¢	$296.65	$291.47	-$5.18	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 65¢	$136.13	$115.61	-$20.52	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$78.65	$58.68	-$19.97
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$57.48	$56.93	-$0.55
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 34.3¢	$68.72	$70.98	+$2.26	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
LI Limousin<$100	Overavg 34¢	$32.37	$33.32	+$0.95	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 36.3¢	$15.74	$15.17	-$0.57	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 34¢	$5.44	$8.4	+$2.96	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 35¢	$3.55	$3.55	-$0	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 65¢	$2.64	$2.64	-$0	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
SE sentrio<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.59	$2.52	-$0.07	41% 1200-1727 (2927)
RN1CTR<$100	Underavg 46¢	$1.39	$1.97	+$0.58	54% 6080-5160 (11240)

0xe02066958cfd02ee1fc8a4cdb51b56a1ca50f39bCTR

Under

Invested

$1,043.94

Value

$1.0K

PnL

-$15

Record

52%

12-11 (23)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$552.5

Value

$552.5

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$417.08

Value

$429.35

PnL

+$12.27

Record

38%

1406-2304 (3710)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$296.65

Value

$291.47

PnL

-$5.18

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$136.13

Value

$115.61

PnL

-$20.52

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

Both legs:

Under$78.6565¢-$19.97

Over$57.4852¢-$0.55

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$68.72

Value

$70.98

PnL

+$2.26

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

Limousin<$100

Over

Invested

$32.37

Value

$33.32

PnL

+$0.95

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$15.74

Value

$15.17

PnL

-$0.57

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$5.44

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$2.96

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$3.55

Value

$3.55

PnL

-$0

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.64

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

sentrio<$100

Over

Invested

$2.59

Value

$2.52

PnL

-$0.07

Record

41%

1200-1727 (2927)

RN1CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.39

Value

$1.97

PnL

+$0.58

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 50%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 12 top traders (42%)Underdog side (market favors Over 51%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+9 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000Over 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance51.7%

49.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$93.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

193.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.