Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (56%). 9 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Croatia vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5

9 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (90%) · Under at 45¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15

Over56¢Under44¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 90%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$156.21

Smart Money Entry

41.6¢ → 44.5¢

+7% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over56%

Under45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,584

Combined PnL+$155.98

Over1 trader

Total Value$24.98

Total Shares45

Combined PnL+$0.23

Under — 90%Over — 10%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 42¢	$557.38	$609.74	+$52.36	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 41¢	$298.81	$335.25	+$36.44	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Underavg 42¢	$289.45	$317.02	+$27.57	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 41¢	$211.15	$236.9	+$25.75	48% 469-508 (977)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$199	-$1	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$107	+$7
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 41¢	$79.54	$89.24	+$9.7	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$29.4	$32.2	+$2.8	56% 649-514 (1163)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 55¢	$24.75	$24.98	+$0.23	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$15.67	$16.38	+$0.71	38% 1338-2179 (3517)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$6.84	$7.49	+$0.65	38% 1339-2199 (3538)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 45.5¢	$4.54	$4.54	+$0	41% 1173-1667 (2840)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$557.38

Value

$609.74

PnL

+$52.36

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$298.81

Value

$335.25

PnL

+$36.44

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

Under

Invested

$289.45

Value

$317.02

PnL

+$27.57

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$211.15

Value

$236.9

PnL

+$25.75

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$199

PnL

-$1

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Over$10050¢+$7

Under$10050¢-$8

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$79.54

Value

$89.24

PnL

+$9.7

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$29.4

Value

$32.2

PnL

+$2.8

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$24.75

Value

$24.98

PnL

+$0.23

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.67

Value

$16.38

PnL

+$0.71

Record

38%

1338-2179 (3517)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.84

Value

$7.49

PnL

+$0.65

Record

38%

1339-2199 (3538)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.54

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 45%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Under

9 of 10 top traders (90%)Underdog side (market favors Over 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.