Croatia vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5

2 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Over (18%) · Over at 94¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over94¢Under6¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 18%

Total Value

$4.5K

Combined PnL

-$453.87

Smart Money Entry

80.9¢ → 94¢

+16% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over94%

Under6%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$3.9K

Total Shares4,269

Combined PnL-$41.55

Under9 traders

Total Value$672.87

Total Shares6,195

Combined PnL-$412.32

Over — 18%Under — 82%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 81¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$41.51	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
SU suntori	Overavg 80¢	$484.36	$483.29	-$0.04	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 19.2¢	$773.14	$261.53	-$511.61	38% 1379-2246 (3625)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 5¢	$42.11	$160	+$117.89	46% 1216-1411 (2627)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 20¢	$120.12	$114.26	-$5.85	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 21¢	$89.44	$80.92	-$8.52	41% 1200-1727 (2927)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 20¢	$30.42	$28.93	-$1.49	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 21.9¢	$14.3	$12.39	-$1.91	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Underavg 19¢	$8.61	$8.61	+$0	59% 3966-2735 (6701)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$6.46	$5.58	-$0.88	38% 1398-2248 (3646)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Underavg 6¢	$0.6	$0.65	+$0.05	50% 1182-1198 (2380)

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$3,419.58

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$41.51

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

suntori

Over

Invested

$484.36

Value

$483.29

PnL

-$0.04

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$773.14

Value

$261.53

PnL

-$511.61

Record

38%

1379-2246 (3625)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$42.11

Value

$160

PnL

+$117.89

Record

46%

1216-1411 (2627)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$120.12

Value

$114.26

PnL

-$5.85

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$89.44

Value

$80.92

PnL

-$8.52

Record

41%

1200-1727 (2927)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.42

Value

$28.93

PnL

-$1.49

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.3

Value

$12.39

PnL

-$1.91

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

NM-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$8.61

Value

$8.61

PnL

+$0

Record

59%

3966-2735 (6701)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.46

Value

$5.58

PnL

-$0.88

Record

38%

1398-2248 (3646)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.6

Value

$0.65

PnL

+$0.05

Record

50%

1182-1198 (2380)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 11 top traders (18%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.2%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.00

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.