Spread: Croatia (-2.5)

5 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Czechia (45%) · Czechia at 84¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Croatia17¢Czechia83¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Czechia

Consensus Traders

Czechia 45%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

$127.9

Smart Money Entry

72.8¢ → 83.5¢

+15% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralCzechia at 84%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Czechia

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Croatia17%

Czechia84%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Czechia5 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares3,028

Combined PnL+$203.71

Croatia6 traders

Total Value$108.08

Total Shares529

Combined PnL-$75.81

Czechia — 45%Croatia — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCzechia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCroatia 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Czechia 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Czechiaavg 76.2¢	$2.3K	$2.1K	-$178.3	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
└ Czechia leg	Czechiaavg 76.2¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$138.48
└ Croatia leg	Croatiaavg 25.5¢	$872.59	$564.33	-$316.78
FL Flaznorp	Czechiaavg 71¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$208.91	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
P1 P1kaso	Czechiaavg 75.4¢	$2.2K	$773.76	-$13.28	21% 32-119 (151)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Czechiaavg 74.9¢	$103.44	$105	+$1.56	47% 507-561 (1068)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Czechiaavg 75¢	$50.66	$51.34	+$0.68	57% 702-540 (1242)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Czechiaavg 72.9¢	$42.3	$48.14	+$5.84	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
38 38791873984189CTR	Croatiaavg 24¢	$466.53	$47.68	-$69.06	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 20.1¢	$20.2	$20.55	+$0.35	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 19¢	$15.01	$18.17	+$3.16	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
dips.CTR<$100	Croatiaavg 37¢	$21.09	$13.68	-$7.41	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 36¢	$8.57	$5.71	-$2.86	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 23¢	$2.3	$2.3	+$0	38% 1416-2272 (3688)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Czechia

Invested

$2,343.59

Value

$2.1K

PnL

-$178.3

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Both legs:

Czechia$1,445.4976.2¢+$138.48

Croatia$872.5925.5¢-$316.78

Flaznorp

Czechia

Invested

$1,240.26

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$208.91

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

P1kaso

Czechia

Invested

$2,151.48

Value

$773.76

PnL

-$13.28

Record

21%

32-119 (151)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Czechia

Invested

$103.44

Value

$105

PnL

+$1.56

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Czechia

Invested

$50.66

Value

$51.34

PnL

+$0.68

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

ferdinand2<$100

Czechia

Invested

$42.3

Value

$48.14

PnL

+$5.84

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

38791873984189CTR

Croatia

Invested

$466.53

Value

$47.68

PnL

-$69.06

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

VenusianCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$20.2

Value

$20.55

PnL

+$0.35

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

suntoriCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$15.01

Value

$18.17

PnL

+$3.16

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

dips.CTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$21.09

Value

$13.68

PnL

-$7.41

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$8.57

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$2.86

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$2.3

Value

$2.3

PnL

+$0

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Research grade

NeutralCzechia at 84%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Czechia

5 of 11 top traders (45%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-17 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCzechia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCroatia 83% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Czechia 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Czechia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance85.2%

83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$17.43

Max Loss

-$100.00

117.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.