Spread: Croatia (-1.5)

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Czechia (50%) · Czechia at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15

Croatia39¢Czechia61¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Czechia

Consensus Traders

Czechia 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$22.47

Smart Money Entry

57.7¢ → 61.5¢

+7% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralCzechia at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Czechia

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Croatia39%

Czechia62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Czechia4 traders

Total Value$526.53

Total Shares859

Combined PnL+$28.63

Croatia4 traders

Total Value$424.8

Total Shares1,091

Combined PnL-$6.16

Czechia — 50%Croatia — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCzechia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCzechia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Czechia 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Czechiaavg 57.2¢	$334.95	$357.46	+$22.51	16% 58-297 (355)
VI viper0310CTR	Croatiaavg 37¢	$189.5	$199.75	+$10.24	— 12-7 (19)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Croatiaavg 42.8¢	$187.49	$171.04	-$16.45	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
P1 P1kaso	Czechiaavg 58.2¢	$129.12	$135.37	+$6.24	21% 32-119 (151)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Croatiaavg 42.4¢	$100.66	$94.07	-$6.59	56% 649-514 (1163)
└ Croatia leg	Croatiaavg 42.4¢	$69.16	$63.57	-$5.59
└ Czechia leg	Czechiaavg 63¢	$31.5	$30.5	-$1
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 39¢	$46.29	$45.7	-$0.59	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
38 38791873984189<$100	Czechiaavg 63¢	$62.33	$26.08	-$0.24	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Croatiaavg 36¢	$7.67	$8.31	+$0.64	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
DV dv-pm<$100	Czechiaavg 60¢	$7.5	$7.63	+$0.13	46% 45-53 (98)

rayvanmechelen

Czechia

Invested

$334.95

Value

$357.46

PnL

+$22.51

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

viper0310CTR

Croatia

Invested

$189.5

Value

$199.75

PnL

+$10.24

Record

—

12-7 (19)

FlaznorpCTR

Croatia

Invested

$187.49

Value

$171.04

PnL

-$16.45

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

P1kaso

Czechia

Invested

$129.12

Value

$135.37

PnL

+$6.24

Record

21%

32-119 (151)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Croatia

Invested

$100.66

Value

$94.07

PnL

-$6.59

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

Both legs:

Croatia$69.1642.4¢-$5.59

Czechia$31.563¢-$1

suntoriCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$46.29

Value

$45.7

PnL

-$0.59

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

38791873984189<$100

Czechia

Invested

$62.33

Value

$26.08

PnL

-$0.24

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Croatia

Invested

$7.67

Value

$8.31

PnL

+$0.64

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

dv-pm<$100

Czechia

Invested

$7.5

Value

$7.63

PnL

+$0.13

Record

46%

45-53 (98)

Research grade

NeutralCzechia at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Czechia

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 94%

Freshness

Late

52h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Czechia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCzechia 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrCzechia 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000Czechia 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Czechia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.