Spread: Czechia (-1.5)

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Croatia (67%) · Croatia at 99¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Czechia<1¢Croatia>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Croatia

Consensus Traders

Croatia 67%

Total Value

$2.7K

Combined PnL

-$3.34

Smart Money Entry

96.1¢ → 99.5¢

+4% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralCroatia at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Croatia

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Czechia1%

Croatia99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Croatia6 traders

Total Value$2.7K

Total Shares2,742

Combined PnL+$85.85

Czechia3 traders

Total Value$12.66

Total Shares2,531

Combined PnL-$89.19

Croatia — 67%Czechia — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Croatia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCzechia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCroatia 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCroatia 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Croatia 67% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Croatiaavg 96¢	$2.5K	$2.6K	+$89.71	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Croatiaavg 99.4¢	$67.83	$61.4	-$6.43	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Croatiaavg 96.7¢	$29.3	$30.14	+$0.83	47% 507-561 (1068)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Croatiaavg 94¢	$27.1	$28.69	+$1.59	51% 204-197 (401)
P1 P1kasoCTR	Czechiaavg 4¢	$100	$12.5	-$87.5	21% 32-119 (151)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Croatiaavg 99.5¢	$11.94	$11.94	+$0	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
RN1<$100	Croatiaavg 98.1¢	$10.84	$10.99	+$0.15	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Czechiaavg 6¢	$1.73	$0.14	-$1.59	53% 2390-2132 (4522)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Czechiaavg 5¢	$0.11	$0.01	-$0.1	35% 669-1223 (1892)

GoalLineGhost

Croatia

Invested

$2,496.08

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$89.71

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Flaznorp<$100

Croatia

Invested

$67.83

Value

$61.4

PnL

-$6.43

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Croatia

Invested

$29.3

Value

$30.14

PnL

+$0.83

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Croatia

Invested

$27.1

Value

$28.69

PnL

+$1.59

Record

51%

204-197 (401)

P1kasoCTR

Czechia

Invested

$100

Value

$12.5

PnL

-$87.5

Record

21%

32-119 (151)

ferdinand2<$100

Croatia

Invested

$11.94

Value

$11.94

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

RN1<$100

Croatia

Invested

$10.84

Value

$10.99

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$1.73

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$1.59

Record

53%

2390-2132 (4522)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Czechia

Invested

$0.11

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.1

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

Research grade

NeutralCroatia at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Croatia

6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 97%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on Croatia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpCzechia 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrCroatia 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedCroatia 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Croatia 67% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Croatia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.