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5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 15

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$22.27

Smart Money Entry

99.5¢ → 98.7¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$7.4K

Total Shares7,549

Combined PnL-$59.59

Yes4 traders

Total Value$104.75

Total Shares7,937

Combined PnL+$37.32

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Noavg 99.5¢	$7.2K	$7.1K	-$58.57	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 99.2¢	$248	$246.63	-$1.38	35% 669-1223 (1892)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.6¢	$39.05	$88.36	+$49.31	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 98.9¢	$27.78	$27.98	+$0.2	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$19.84	$19.92	+$0.08	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$19.84	$19.92	+$0.08	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$269.82	$13.3	-$13.63	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.5¢	$1.14	$2.97	+$1.83	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$0.31	$0.11	-$0.2	41% 1218-1750 (2968)

RN1

Invested

$7,191.95

Value

$7.1K

PnL

-$58.57

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$248

Value

$246.63

PnL

-$1.38

Record

35%

669-1223 (1892)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.05

Value

$88.36

PnL

+$49.31

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$27.78

Value

$27.98

PnL

+$0.2

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$19.84

Value

$19.92

PnL

+$0.08

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$269.82

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$13.63

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$1.83

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.31

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$0.2

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.