Exact Score: Croatia 2 - 1 Czechia?
6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
10
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$62.57
88.6¢ → 89¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 89%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 10 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VE Venusian | Noavg 88¢ | $308.3 | $318.81 | +$10.51 | 38% 1425-2300 (3725) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89¢ | $311.45 | $304.45 | -$7 | 43% 577-770 (1347) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 89¢ | $194.35 | $194.35 | -$0 | 59% 3971-2747 (6718) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $141.88 | $126.67 | -$15.21 | 48% 4819-5125 (9944) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $88.89 | $72.08 | -$16.81 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.3¢ | $52.99 | $54.59 | +$1.6 | |
FO forecastication4<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $67.64 | $66.12 | -$1.52 | 36% 210-367 (577) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $139.69 | $43.8 | +$60.39 | 48% 4056-4455 (8511) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $38.71 | $38.71 | +$0 | 46% 3397-3944 (7341) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $34.72 | $35.52 | +$0.8 | 38% 1401-2279 (3680) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $17.52 | $17.62 | +$0.1 | 38% 1425-2328 (3753) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $2.23 | $1.52 | -$0.7 | 48% 2643-2871 (5514) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $0.88 | $0.88 | +$0 | 53% 2390-2132 (4522) |
Invested
$308.3
Value
$318.81
PnL
+$10.51
Record
38%
1425-2300 (3725)
Invested
$311.45
Value
$304.45
PnL
-$7
Record
43%
577-770 (1347)
Invested
$194.35
Value
$194.35
PnL
-$0
Record
59%
3971-2747 (6718)
Invested
$141.88
Value
$126.67
PnL
-$15.21
Record
48%
4819-5125 (9944)
Both legs:
Invested
$67.64
Value
$66.12
PnL
-$1.52
Record
36%
210-367 (577)
Invested
$139.69
Value
$43.8
PnL
+$60.39
Record
48%
4056-4455 (8511)
Invested
$38.71
Value
$38.71
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
3397-3944 (7341)
Invested
$34.72
Value
$35.52
PnL
+$0.8
Record
38%
1401-2279 (3680)
Invested
$17.52
Value
$17.62
PnL
+$0.1
Record
38%
1425-2328 (3753)
Invested
$2.23
Value
$1.52
PnL
-$0.7
Record
48%
2643-2871 (5514)
Invested
$0.88
Value
$0.88
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2390-2132 (4522)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.