Will Croatia vs. Czechia end in a draw?
2 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (29%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 29%
2 arb excluded
$1.6K
$2.17
78¢ → 78.5¢
+1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 7 top traders (29%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-38 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
14h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
29% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 78¢ | $915.98 | $921.85 | +$5.87 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 21¢ | $169.11 | $169.11 | -$0 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100 | Noavg 50¢ | $170 | $168.3 | -$1.7 | 64% 145-81 (226) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 50¢ | $85 | $132.6 | +$47.6 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 50¢ | $85 | $35.7 | -$49.3 | |
NM NM-PARB<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $149.98 | $153.23 | +$3.25 | 59% 3949-2729 (6678) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 21¢ | $75.48 | $77.27 | +$1.8 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 77¢ | $74.51 | $75.96 | +$1.45 | |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $92.66 | $92.66 | +$0 | 47% 1186-1362 (2548) |
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $84 | $84 | +$0 | 21% 32-119 (151) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $31.98 | $31.98 | +$0 | 56% 651-514 (1165) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 33.3¢ | $13.55 | $9.85 | -$3.7 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 21¢ | $8.51 | $8.51 | +$0 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
Invested
$915.98
Value
$921.85
PnL
+$5.87
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$169.11
Value
$169.11
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$170
Value
$168.3
PnL
-$1.7
Record
64%
145-81 (226)
Both legs:
Invested
$149.98
Value
$153.23
PnL
+$3.25
Record
59%
3949-2729 (6678)
Both legs:
Invested
$92.66
Value
$92.66
PnL
+$0
Record
47%
1186-1362 (2548)
Invested
$84
Value
$84
PnL
+$0
Record
21%
32-119 (151)
Invested
$31.98
Value
$31.98
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
651-514 (1165)
Invested
$13.55
Value
$9.85
PnL
-$3.7
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$8.51
Value
$8.51
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.