Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Croatia vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 45¢ · $810 held · ended Nov 15

Yes56¢No44¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$809.86

Combined PnL

$1.17

Smart Money Entry

49¢ → 44.5¢

-9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No45%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$730.94

Total Shares1,478

Combined PnL-$7.07

Yes3 traders

Total Value$78.92

Total Shares128

Combined PnL+$8.24

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 50¢	$208.02	$210.1	+$2.08	53% 1923-1675 (3598)
0xheavy888CTR	Noavg 49¢	$180.95	$181.13	+$0.18	56% 679-534 (1213)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 49.3¢	$148.2	$132.15	-$16.05	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Noavg 48.1¢	$111.15	$115.07	+$3.92	48% 490-523 (1013)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 47.3¢	$98.66	$63.56	+$7.57	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$31.5	$34.3	+$2.8	56% 672-523 (1195)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 50¢	$23.29	$22.59	-$0.7	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 49¢	$22.54	$22.31	-$0.23	38% 1353-2203 (3556)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$9.8	$9.7	-$0.1	48% 98-106 (204)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$7.71	$8.39	+$0.69	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
NO NotJump<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$4.89	$5.66	+$0.76	50% 1156-1164 (2320)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 46.5¢	$4.65	$4.9	+$0.25	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$208.02

Value

$210.1

PnL

+$2.08

Record

53%

1923-1675 (3598)

0xheavy888CTR

Invested

$180.95

Value

$181.13

PnL

+$0.18

Record

56%

679-534 (1213)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$148.2

Value

$132.15

PnL

-$16.05

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Invested

$111.15

Value

$115.07

PnL

+$3.92

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.66

Value

$63.56

PnL

+$7.57

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$31.5

Value

$34.3

PnL

+$2.8

Record

56%

672-523 (1195)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$23.29

Value

$22.59

PnL

-$0.7

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$22.54

Value

$22.31

PnL

-$0.23

Record

38%

1353-2203 (3556)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.8

Value

$9.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

98-106 (204)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$7.71

Value

$8.39

PnL

+$0.69

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

NotJump<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.89

Value

$5.66

PnL

+$0.76

Record

50%

1156-1164 (2320)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$4.9

PnL

+$0.25

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 45%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 58%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 100% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.7%

44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$113.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

214.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.