Georgia vs. Hungary: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 84¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
$1.6K
$19.8
82.9¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 84%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 83¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$6.99 | 54% 2013-1746 (3759) |
KY Kyn008CTR | Overavg 17¢ | $225.21 | $238.46 | +$13.25 | 40% 139-209 (348) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $80.22 | $80.22 | +$0 | 76% 165-53 (218) |
 nigiri99<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $76.36 | $75.9 | -$0.46 | 51% 499-470 (969) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $14.55 | $14.55 | -$0 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Overavg 18¢ | $3.22 | $3.22 | +$0 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 16¢ | $0.95 | $0.98 | +$0.03 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
Invested
$1,138.38
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$6.99
Record
54%
2013-1746 (3759)
Invested
$225.21
Value
$238.46
PnL
+$13.25
Record
40%
139-209 (348)
Invested
$80.22
Value
$80.22
PnL
+$0
Record
76%
165-53 (218)
nigiri99<$100Invested
$76.36
Value
$75.9
PnL
-$0.46
Record
51%
499-470 (969)
Invested
$14.55
Value
$14.55
PnL
-$0
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$3.22
Value
$3.22
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$0.95
Value
$0.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.