Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (61%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Georgia vs. Hungary: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 40¢ · $419 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
$419.44
-$5.3
39.8¢ → 39.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 40%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 61%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR | Overavg 40¢ | $240.1 | $237.1 | -$3 | 51% 2392-2332 (4724) |
38 38791873984189 | Underavg 60.4¢ | $132.22 | $131.29 | -$0.93 | 48% 2982-3276 (6258) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 62.9¢ | $21.71 | $21.92 | +$0.21 | 54% 2027-1761 (3788) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $14.89 | $14.3 | -$0.59 | 36% 906-1622 (2528) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Overavg 39¢ | $15.21 | $14.24 | -$0.98 | 49% 3587-3673 (7260) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Overavg 38¢ | $0.61 | $0.59 | -$0.02 | 53% 1598-1443 (3041) |
Invested
$240.1
Value
$237.1
PnL
-$3
Record
51%
2392-2332 (4724)
Invested
$132.22
Value
$131.29
PnL
-$0.93
Record
48%
2982-3276 (6258)
Invested
$21.71
Value
$21.92
PnL
+$0.21
Record
54%
2027-1761 (3788)
Invested
$14.89
Value
$14.3
PnL
-$0.59
Record
36%
906-1622 (2528)
Invested
$15.21
Value
$14.24
PnL
-$0.98
Record
49%
3587-3673 (7260)
Invested
$0.61
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
1598-1443 (3041)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
39.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.