Georgia vs. Hungary: O/U 1.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 14

Over66¢Under34¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 50%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$17.19

Smart Money Entry

65.4¢ → 65.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over66%

Under35%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$904.23

Total Shares1,377

Combined PnL+$4.06

Under5 traders

Total Value$853.13

Total Shares2,482

Combined PnL-$21.25

Over — 50%Under — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 65.1¢	$597.19	$601.2	+$4.01	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 35.9¢	$444.11	$426.9	-$17.21	49% 3801-3964 (7765)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 34¢	$299.47	$303.87	+$4.4	36% 944-1666 (2610)
0xheavy888	Overavg 66¢	$264	$264	+$0	54% 491-416 (907)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 35.9¢	$105.24	$98.22	-$7.02	42% 989-1357 (2346)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$23.76	$22.44	-$1.32	56% 460-366 (826)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 66¢	$22.15	$22.15	-$0	48% 3196-3499 (6695)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 66¢	$13.63	$13.63	+$0	52% 1709-1558 (3267)
KY Kyn008<$100	Overavg 64¢	$3.2	$3.25	+$0.05	41% 144-209 (353)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 36¢	$1.8	$1.7	-$0.1	48% 2063-2220 (4283)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$597.19

Value

$601.2

PnL

+$4.01

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$444.11

Value

$426.9

PnL

-$17.21

Record

49%

3801-3964 (7765)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$299.47

Value

$303.87

PnL

+$4.4

Record

36%

944-1666 (2610)

0xheavy888

Over

Invested

$264

Value

$264

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

491-416 (907)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$105.24

Value

$98.22

PnL

-$7.02

Record

42%

989-1357 (2346)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.76

Value

$22.44

PnL

-$1.32

Record

56%

460-366 (826)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$22.15

Value

$22.15

PnL

-$0

Record

48%

3196-3499 (6695)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.63

Value

$13.63

PnL

+$0

Record

52%

1709-1558 (3267)

Kyn008<$100

Over

Invested

$3.2

Value

$3.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

41%

144-209 (353)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.8

Value

$1.7

PnL

-$0.1

Record

48%

2063-2220 (4283)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 66%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance67.6%

65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$47.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

147.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.