Spread: Georgia (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Hungary (56%) · Hungary at 100¢ · $438 held · ended Nov 14

Georgia<1¢Hungary>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hungary

Consensus Traders

Hungary 56%

Total Value

$437.58

Combined PnL

$10.96

Smart Money Entry

91.2¢ → 100¢

+10% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHungary at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hungary

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Georgia0%

Hungary100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hungary5 traders

Total Value$434.65

Total Shares460

Combined PnL+$10.92

Georgia4 traders

Total Value$2.94

Total Shares38

Combined PnL+$0.04

Hungary — 56%Georgia — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Hungary. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Hungary 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Hungaryavg 91.4¢	$221.16	$222.43	+$1.26	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
FL Flaznorp	Hungaryavg 93.2¢	$131.66	$136.05	+$4.39	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Hungaryavg 87¢	$32.19	$34.04	+$1.85	55% 474-384 (858)
38 38791873984189<$100	Hungaryavg 87¢	$71.37	$30.2	+$4.82	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
GH ghorrock<$100	Hungaryavg 89¢	$13.33	$11.93	-$1.4	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Georgiaavg 6¢	$1.04	$1.38	+$0.35	34% 370-708 (1078)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Georgiaavg 9¢	$0.96	$0.85	-$0.11	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Georgiaavg 7¢	$0.35	$0.4	+$0.05	45% 814-997 (1811)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Georgiaavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.3	-$0.25	42% 1008-1381 (2389)

GoalLineGhost

Hungary

Invested

$221.16

Value

$222.43

PnL

+$1.26

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

Flaznorp

Hungary

Invested

$131.66

Value

$136.05

PnL

+$4.39

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Hungary

Invested

$32.19

Value

$34.04

PnL

+$1.85

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

38791873984189<$100

Hungary

Invested

$71.37

Value

$30.2

PnL

+$4.82

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

ghorrock<$100

Hungary

Invested

$13.33

Value

$11.93

PnL

-$1.4

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.38

PnL

+$0.35

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$0.96

Value

$0.85

PnL

-$0.11

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

lryyyCTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$0.35

Value

$0.4

PnL

+$0.05

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

sentrioCTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.3

PnL

-$0.25

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

Research grade

NeutralHungary at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hungary

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

56% of non-arb traders are on Hungary. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrGeorgia 80% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Hungary 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hungary wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.