Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Hungary, while the market favors Georgia (93%). 7 of 11 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Hungary (-2.5)

7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Hungary (64%) · Hungary at 6.7¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14

Hungary7¢Georgia93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Hungary

Consensus Traders

Hungary 64%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$415.71

Smart Money Entry

5¢ → 6.7¢

+35% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidHungary at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hungary

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hungary7%

Georgia93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hungary7 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares19,998

Combined PnL+$367.63

Georgia4 traders

Total Value$995.36

Total Shares903

Combined PnL+$48.08

Hungary — 64%Georgia — 36%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hungary. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHungary 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Hungary 80% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Hungaryavg 4.9¢	$592.18	$905.44	+$313.25	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
GO GoalLineGhost	Georgiaavg 92.5¢	$684.04	$728.18	+$44.13	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Hungaryavg 4.9¢	$181.57	$211.25	+$29.68	47% 895-994 (1889)
SE sentrioCTR	Hungaryavg 4.9¢	$134.94	$156.92	+$21.97	42% 995-1363 (2358)
38 38791873984189	Georgiaavg 92.7¢	$224.89	$154.44	+$2.82	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Georgiaavg 94.1¢	$83.42	$84.25	+$0.83	48% 286-306 (592)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100	Hungaryavg 7.2¢	$61.32	$60.87	-$0.45	25% 341-1019 (1360)
FO forecastication4<$100	Georgiaavg 94¢	$28.19	$28.49	+$0.3	33% 168-335 (503)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Hungaryavg 5¢	$16.4	$18.53	+$2.13	37% 960-1662 (2622)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Hungaryavg 4.9¢	$5.96	$6.86	+$0.9	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Hungaryavg 5¢	$1.08	$1.22	+$0.14	36% 948-1669 (2617)

FlaznorpCTR

Hungary

Invested

$592.18

Value

$905.44

PnL

+$313.25

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

GoalLineGhost

Georgia

Invested

$684.04

Value

$728.18

PnL

+$44.13

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

SnakeBallCTR

Hungary

Invested

$181.57

Value

$211.25

PnL

+$29.68

Record

47%

895-994 (1889)

sentrioCTR

Hungary

Invested

$134.94

Value

$156.92

PnL

+$21.97

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

38791873984189

Georgia

Invested

$224.89

Value

$154.44

PnL

+$2.82

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Georgia

Invested

$83.42

Value

$84.25

PnL

+$0.83

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR<$100

Hungary

Invested

$61.32

Value

$60.87

PnL

-$0.45

Record

25%

341-1019 (1360)

forecastication4<$100

Georgia

Invested

$28.19

Value

$28.49

PnL

+$0.3

Record

33%

168-335 (503)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Hungary

Invested

$16.4

Value

$18.53

PnL

+$2.13

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Hungary

Invested

$5.96

Value

$6.86

PnL

+$0.9

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

VenusianCTR<$100

Hungary

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.22

PnL

+$0.14

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

Research grade

AvoidHungary at 7%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Hungary

7 of 11 top traders (64%)Underdog side (market favors Georgia 93%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on Hungary. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrHungary 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Hungary 80% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hungary wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance8.1%

6.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1141.41

Max Loss

-$100.00

1241.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.