Spread: Hungary (-1.5)

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Hungary (50%) · Hungary at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 14

Hungary>99¢Georgia<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Hungary

Consensus Traders

Hungary 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.3K

Combined PnL

$3.1K

Smart Money Entry

25.6¢ → 100¢

+291% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralHungary at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Hungary

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Hungary100%

Georgia0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Hungary5 traders

Total Value$7.3K

Total Shares9,653

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Georgia5 traders

Total Value$61.04

Total Shares202

Combined PnL-$25.08

Hungary — 50%Georgia — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Hungaryavg 27.2¢	$3.8K	$7.0K	+$3.2K	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Georgiaavg 74.1¢	$6.6K	$888.37	$-5.7K	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Georgia leg	Georgiaavg 74.1¢	$6.4K	$480.24	$-5.9K
└ Hungary leg	Hungaryavg 60¢	$259.48	$408.13	+$148.64
FaroeseNationalist	Hungaryavg 19¢	$295.45	$209.15	-$86.3	53% 20-18 (38)
MA MadridTime<$100	Hungaryavg 20.3¢	$7.04	$34.64	+$27.61	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Georgiaavg 83¢	$31.54	$33.44	+$1.9	55% 474-384 (858)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Georgiaavg 81¢	$10.23	$11.12	+$0.88	48% 293-321 (614)
38 38791873984189	Hungaryavg 5.7¢	$173.03	$10.21	-$10.73	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Georgiaavg 83¢	$8.11	$8.6	+$0.49	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Georgiaavg 13.4¢	$12.77	$4.87	-$2.9	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Georgiaavg 52.7¢	$28.47	$3.02	-$25.45	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
NO NotJump<$100	Hungaryavg 4¢	$0.77	$0.76	-$0.01	52% 833-779 (1612)

GoalLineGhost

Hungary

Invested

$3,837.28

Value

$7.0K

PnL

+$3.2K

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Georgia

Invested

$6,610.27

Value

$888.37

PnL

$-5.7K

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Georgia$6,350.7974.1¢$-5.9K

Hungary$259.4860¢+$148.64

FaroeseNationalist

Hungary

Invested

$295.45

Value

$209.15

PnL

-$86.3

Record

53%

20-18 (38)

MadridTime<$100

Hungary

Invested

$7.04

Value

$34.64

PnL

+$27.61

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$31.54

Value

$33.44

PnL

+$1.9

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$10.23

Value

$11.12

PnL

+$0.88

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

38791873984189

Hungary

Invested

$173.03

Value

$10.21

PnL

-$10.73

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$8.11

Value

$8.6

PnL

+$0.49

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$12.77

Value

$4.87

PnL

-$2.9

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Georgia

Invested

$28.47

Value

$3.02

PnL

-$25.45

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

NotJump<$100

Hungary

Invested

$0.77

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

Research grade

NeutralHungary at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Hungary

5 of 10 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Hungary wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.