Georgia leading at halftime?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $733 held · ended Nov 14

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$733.1

Combined PnL

-$3.73

Smart Money Entry

80.6¢ → 100¢

+24% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$424.3

Total Shares577

Combined PnL-$41.96

Yes3 traders

Total Value$82.33

Total Shares293

Combined PnL+$38.23

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 82¢	$222.39	$226.47	+$4.08	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ No leg	Noavg 82¢	$182.22	$157.78	-$24.44
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 17¢	$40.17	$68.69	+$28.52
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 79.8¢	$223.61	$198.91	-$24.71	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
TO topdogbigboi	Noavg 82.4¢	$110.53	$100.61	-$9.92	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 77¢	$70.52	$65.02	-$5.5	37% 977-1669 (2646)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 24.5¢	$40.49	$47.99	+$7.5	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SP SpringlyFawlCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$1.17	$33.92	+$32.75	3% 8-287 (295)
dips.<$100	Noavg 86¢	$51.6	$19.17	-$3.72	47% 973-1108 (2081)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 82.4¢	$14.25	$17.29	+$3.04	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 92¢	$9.3	$10.1	+$0.8	36% 950-1657 (2607)
SM smithagent<$100	Noavg 86¢	$11.18	$9.23	-$1.95	44% 661-825 (1486)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 71¢	$3.97	$3.97	+$0	34% 370-708 (1078)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$2.45	$0.43	-$2.02	55% 5380-4339 (9719)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$222.39

Value

$226.47

PnL

+$4.08

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

No$182.2282¢-$24.44

Yes$40.1717¢+$28.52

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$223.61

Value

$198.91

PnL

-$24.71

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

topdogbigboi

Invested

$110.53

Value

$100.61

PnL

-$9.92

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$70.52

Value

$65.02

PnL

-$5.5

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$40.49

Value

$47.99

PnL

+$7.5

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

SpringlyFawlCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.17

Value

$33.92

PnL

+$32.75

Record

8-287 (295)

dips.<$100

Invested

$51.6

Value

$19.17

PnL

-$3.72

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$14.25

Value

$17.29

PnL

+$3.04

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$9.3

Value

$10.1

PnL

+$0.8

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

smithagent<$100

Invested

$11.18

Value

$9.23

PnL

-$1.95

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$3.97

Value

$3.97

PnL

+$0

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.43

PnL

-$2.02

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (9 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.