Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (100%). 7 of 15 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Georgia vs. Hungary: Draw at halftime?

7 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold No (47%) · No at 0.1¢ · $642 held · ended Nov 14

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Consensus Traders

No 47%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$642.18

Combined PnL

-$17.56

Smart Money Entry

42.4¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$389.36

Total Shares421

Combined PnL+$100.8

No7 traders

Total Value$114.04

Total Shares548

Combined PnL-$118.35

Yes — 53%No — 47%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Yesavg 69.9¢	$153.5	$173.52	+$20.03	37% 968-1674 (2642)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$92.11	$138.65	+$46.54	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 48¢	$46.67	$76.81	+$30.14
└ No leg	Noavg 15.4¢	$45.44	$61.84	+$16.4
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 88.3¢	$85.55	$96.89	+$11.34	36% 950-1657 (2607)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 52.6¢	$210.82	$84.11	-$126.71	53% 2108-1855 (3963)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 89¢	$29.37	$32.98	+$3.61	37% 977-1669 (2646)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 50¢	$16.18	$32.35	+$16.17	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
38 38791873984189<$100	Yesavg 81.6¢	$33.67	$26.33	+$42.66	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
SE sentrio<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$10.34	$17.02	+$6.68	42% 1008-1381 (2389)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Noavg 3¢	$1.53	$10.71	+$9.18	44% 661-825 (1486)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$3.63	$6.93	+$3.3	34% 370-708 (1078)
RN1<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$6.3	$5.53	-$0.77	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
US User7429<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$3.66	$4.74	+$1.08	40% 331-495 (826)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$2.54	$4.45	+$1.91	37% 1039-1757 (2796)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 14.1¢	$2.96	$4.41	+$1.45	45% 814-997 (1811)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 53¢	$5.5	$2.18	-$3.32	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 52¢	$5.42	$1.25	-$4.17	55% 474-384 (858)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$153.5

Value

$173.52

PnL

+$20.03

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$92.11

Value

$138.65

PnL

+$46.54

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Invested

$85.55

Value

$96.89

PnL

+$11.34

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$210.82

Value

$84.11

PnL

-$126.71

Record

53%

2108-1855 (3963)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.37

Value

$32.98

PnL

+$3.61

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.18

Value

$32.35

PnL

+$16.17

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

38791873984189<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.67

Value

$26.33

PnL

+$42.66

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

sentrio<$100

Yes

Invested

$10.34

Value

$17.02

PnL

+$6.68

Record

42%

1008-1381 (2389)

smithagentCTR<$100

Invested

$1.53

Value

$10.71

PnL

+$9.18

Record

44%

661-825 (1486)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Invested

$3.63

Value

$6.93

PnL

+$3.3

Record

34%

370-708 (1078)

RN1<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.3

Value

$5.53

PnL

-$0.77

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

User7429<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.66

Value

$4.74

PnL

+$1.08

Record

40%

331-495 (826)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$2.54

Value

$4.45

PnL

+$1.91

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$2.96

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$1.45

Record

45%

814-997 (1811)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$5.5

Value

$2.18

PnL

-$3.32

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$5.42

Value

$1.25

PnL

-$4.17

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

Research grade

AvoidNo at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 15 top traders (47%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%13 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+7 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 85%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.