Will Georgia win on 2026-11-14?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 69¢ · $509 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$509.28
$1.79
68.9¢ → 68.5¢
-1% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+5 pts consensus
Breadth
9 traders
Top 2 hold 52%
Freshness
Mature
24h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 52% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI LightParadox | Noavg 69¢ | $180.36 | $180.36 | +$0 | 36% 911-1587 (2498) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $55.07 | $55.78 | +$0.71 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
OD Oddstorm<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $50.29 | $50.29 | +$0 | 32% 92-195 (287) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $48.94 | $48.94 | +$0 | 36% 893-1601 (2494) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $45.13 | $45.13 | +$0 | 36% 883-1569 (2452) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $37.2 | $37.75 | +$0.55 | 59% 3728-2540 (6268) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $24.7 | $25.06 | +$0.36 | 52% 66-62 (128) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $24.27 | $24.62 | +$0.35 | 48% 2942-3249 (6191) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $17.22 | $17.41 | +$0.2 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $12.82 | $12.82 | +$0 | 37% 926-1560 (2486) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $8.08 | $7.82 | -$0.26 | 43% 920-1244 (2164) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 31¢ | $3.41 | $3.3 | -$0.11 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
Invested
$180.36
Value
$180.36
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
911-1587 (2498)
Invested
$55.07
Value
$55.78
PnL
+$0.71
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$50.29
Value
$50.29
PnL
+$0
Record
32%
92-195 (287)
Invested
$48.94
Value
$48.94
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
893-1601 (2494)
Invested
$45.13
Value
$45.13
PnL
+$0
Record
36%
883-1569 (2452)
Invested
$37.2
Value
$37.75
PnL
+$0.55
Record
59%
3728-2540 (6268)
Invested
$24.7
Value
$25.06
PnL
+$0.36
Record
52%
66-62 (128)
Invested
$24.27
Value
$24.62
PnL
+$0.35
Record
48%
2942-3249 (6191)
Invested
$17.22
Value
$17.41
PnL
+$0.2
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$12.82
Value
$12.82
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
926-1560 (2486)
Invested
$8.08
Value
$7.82
PnL
-$0.26
Record
43%
920-1244 (2164)
Invested
$3.41
Value
$3.3
PnL
-$0.11
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.