Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (83%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Exact Score: Georgia 1 - 0 Hungary?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 17¢ · $324 held · ended Nov 14

Yes17¢No83¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$323.94

Combined PnL

$61.71

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes17%

No83%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$132.42

Total Shares840

Combined PnL+$64.44

No2 traders

Total Value$56.32

Total Shares67

Combined PnL-$2.73

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 10.1¢	$98.03	$135.19	+$37.16	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 10.1¢	$64.44	$101.6	+$37.16
└ No leg	Noavg 84¢	$33.59	$33.59	+$0
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$31.5	$56	+$24.5	37% 364-613 (977)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 89¢	$48.55	$45.82	-$2.73	48% 912-1002 (1914)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$20.5	$36.44	+$15.94	59% 3772-2596 (6368)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$3.89	$21.6	+$17.71	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Noavg 84¢	$10.5	$10.5	+$0	36% 455-810 (1265)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 11.3¢	$6.95	$9.84	+$2.89	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.95	$8.24	+$3.3	48% 293-321 (614)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.2	$0.3	+$0.1	53% 1809-1607 (3416)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$98.03

Value

$135.19

PnL

+$37.16

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

Both legs:

Yes$64.4410.1¢+$37.16

No$33.5984¢+$0

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.5

Value

$56

PnL

+$24.5

Record

37%

364-613 (977)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$48.55

Value

$45.82

PnL

-$2.73

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$20.5

Value

$36.44

PnL

+$15.94

Record

59%

3772-2596 (6368)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.89

Value

$21.6

PnL

+$17.71

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

LuckyLoo<$100

Invested

$10.5

Value

$10.5

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.95

Value

$9.84

PnL

+$2.89

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.95

Value

$8.24

PnL

+$3.3

Record

48%

293-321 (614)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.2

Value

$0.3

PnL

+$0.1

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 17%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 83%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-11 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 70%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 70% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 50% · 4

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance18.7%

17.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$433.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

533.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.