Will Georgia vs. Hungary end in a draw?

10 of 22 top Polymarket traders hold No (45%) · No at 64¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Yes37¢No63¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 45%

Total Value

$6.3K

Combined PnL

$260.42

Smart Money Entry

68.7¢ → 63.5¢

-8% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 22 top traders (45%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes37%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$4.4K

Total Shares6,214

Combined PnL-$19.65

Yes12 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,969

Combined PnL+$280.06

No — 45%Yes — 55%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 69.5¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$10.11	37% 357-610 (967)
NM NM-P	Noavg 68.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$22.89	59% 3767-2593 (6360)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70¢	$791.76	$791.76	-$0	53% 2094-1845 (3939)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 31.5¢	$577.67	$716.02	+$138.36	49% 3844-4007 (7851)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 64.9¢	$833.17	$449.63	-$27.55	48% 3222-3520 (6742)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Yesavg 32.8¢	$365.97	$434.84	+$68.87	37% 972-1637 (2609)
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 31.9¢	$244.3	$279.65	+$35.35	36% 953-1669 (2622)
NO NotJump	Noavg 66.7¢	$255.96	$243.78	-$12.18	52% 828-769 (1597)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Yesavg 33.9¢	$181.79	$190.1	+$8.31	37% 964-1664 (2628)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 30.6¢	$161.88	$187.78	+$25.9	46% 2679-3158 (5837)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Noavg 70.6¢	$126.24	$125.16	-$1.08	51% 70-66 (136)
PT PT-S7<$100	Noavg 67.5¢	$84.9	$75.29	-$4.71	26% 78-225 (303)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 70.8¢	$57.69	$50.54	-$7.16	13% 49-337 (386)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$13.92	$18	+$4.08	48% 2091-2257 (4348)
SM SmallcoinsCTR<$100	Yesavg 37¢	$12.93	$13.28	+$0.35	4% 9-230 (239)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$11.28	$11.2	-$0.08	52% 1734-1576 (3310)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 36¢	$11.2	$11.04	-$0.16	36% 937-1647 (2584)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$10	$9.35	-$0.65	19% 26-114 (140)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$4.01	$3.75	-$0.26	62% 213-128 (341)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100	Noavg 61¢	$3.05	$3.08	+$0.03	44% 377-472 (849)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2	$2	+$0	21% 57-217 (274)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Noavg 62¢	$1.63	$1.63	-$0	37% 1030-1738 (2768)

GC-P

Invested

$1,387.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$10.11

Record

37%

357-610 (967)

NM-P

Invested

$1,283.04

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$22.89

Record

59%

3767-2593 (6360)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$791.76

Value

$791.76

PnL

-$0

Record

53%

2094-1845 (3939)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$577.67

Value

$716.02

PnL

+$138.36

Record

49%

3844-4007 (7851)

38791873984189

Invested

$833.17

Value

$449.63

PnL

-$27.55

Record

48%

3222-3520 (6742)

MadridTimeCTR

Yes

Invested

$365.97

Value

$434.84

PnL

+$68.87

Record

37%

972-1637 (2609)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$244.3

Value

$279.65

PnL

+$35.35

Record

36%

953-1669 (2622)

NotJump

Invested

$255.96

Value

$243.78

PnL

-$12.18

Record

52%

828-769 (1597)

LightParadoxCTR

Yes

Invested

$181.79

Value

$190.1

PnL

+$8.31

Record

37%

964-1664 (2628)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$161.88

Value

$187.78

PnL

+$25.9

Record

46%

2679-3158 (5837)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Invested

$126.24

Value

$125.16

PnL

-$1.08

Record

51%

70-66 (136)

PT-S7<$100

Invested

$84.9

Value

$75.29

PnL

-$4.71

Record

26%

78-225 (303)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$57.69

Value

$50.54

PnL

-$7.16

Record

13%

49-337 (386)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.92

Value

$18

PnL

+$4.08

Record

48%

2091-2257 (4348)

SmallcoinsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.93

Value

$13.28

PnL

+$0.35

Record

9-230 (239)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.28

Value

$11.2

PnL

-$0.08

Record

52%

1734-1576 (3310)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.2

Value

$11.04

PnL

-$0.16

Record

36%

937-1647 (2584)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.35

PnL

-$0.65

Record

19%

26-114 (140)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.26

Record

62%

213-128 (341)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0<$100

Invested

$3.05

Value

$3.08

PnL

+$0.03

Record

44%

377-472 (849)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

57-217 (274)

topdogbigboi<$100

Invested

$1.63

Value

$1.63

PnL

-$0

Record

37%

1030-1738 (2768)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 22 top traders (45%)12 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 76%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 76% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance65.6%

63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$52.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

152.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.