Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (52%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Georgia vs. Hungary: Both Teams to Score

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 48¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14

Yes48¢No52¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.1K

Combined PnL

$11.6

Smart Money Entry

47.6¢ → 48¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes48%

No52%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$742.23

Total Shares1,540

Combined PnL+$9.73

No3 traders

Total Value$100.03

Total Shares187

Combined PnL+$1.87

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE VenusianCTR	Yesavg 47.9¢	$552.52	$559.8	+$7.28	36% 948-1669 (2617)
0xheavy888ARB<$100	Noavg 52.1¢	$308	$301.87	-$6.13	54% 496-419 (915)
└ No leg	Noavg 52.1¢	$228.11	$221.16	-$6.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 49¢	$79.89	$80.7	+$0.82
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$62.91	$64.22	+$1.31	37% 960-1662 (2622)
38 38791873984189<$100	Noavg 51.7¢	$82.8	$52.9	+$1.04	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$49.28	$49.77	+$0.49	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.5¢	$47.49	$48.03	+$0.54	56% 463-370 (833)
nigiri99<$100	Noavg 51¢	$38.76	$39.52	+$0.76	51% 568-535 (1103)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 46¢	$14.4	$14.4	+$0	42% 995-1363 (2358)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 52¢	$7.53	$7.61	+$0.07	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 48.6¢	$5.9	$6.01	+$0.11	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

VenusianCTR

Yes

Invested

$552.52

Value

$559.8

PnL

+$7.28

Record

36%

948-1669 (2617)

0xheavy888ARB<$100

Invested

$308

Value

$301.87

PnL

-$6.13

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

Both legs:

Invested

$62.91

Value

$64.22

PnL

+$1.31

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

38791873984189<$100

Invested

$82.8

Value

$52.9

PnL

+$1.04

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.28

Value

$49.77

PnL

+$0.49

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.49

Value

$48.03

PnL

+$0.54

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

nigiri99<$100

Invested

$38.76

Value

$39.52

PnL

+$0.76

Record

51%

568-535 (1103)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.4

Value

$14.4

PnL

+$0

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$7.53

Value

$7.61

PnL

+$0.07

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.9

Value

$6.01

PnL

+$0.11

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 52%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

75% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (7 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance50.2%

48.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$99.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

199.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.