France vs. Türkiye: O/U 5.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 81¢ · $609 held · ends Nov 15

Over20¢Under80¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

Total Value

$609.45

Combined PnL

-$2.44

Smart Money Entry

80.5¢ → 80.5¢

+0% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over20%

Under81%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$535.98

Total Shares669

Combined PnL-$3.12

Over4 traders

Total Value$73.47

Total Shares367

Combined PnL+$0.68

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 80.6¢	$378.11	$375.29	-$2.81	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 80¢	$119.2	$119.2	+$0	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 20¢	$66.66	$66.66	+$0	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
DV dv-pm<$100	Underavg 82¢	$20.5	$20.25	-$0.25	46% 45-53 (98)
HY hydra1248<$100	Underavg 82¢	$13.3	$13.14	-$0.16	73% 237-87 (324)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 80¢	$8	$8.1	+$0.1	48% 490-523 (1013)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$3.97	$4.41	+$0.44	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$1.26	$1.4	+$0.14	53% 2377-2113 (4490)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$0.9	$1	+$0.1	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$378.11

Value

$375.29

PnL

-$2.81

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$119.2

Value

$119.2

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$66.66

Value

$66.66

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

dv-pm<$100

Under

Invested

$20.5

Value

$20.25

PnL

-$0.25

Record

46%

45-53 (98)

hydra1248<$100

Under

Invested

$13.3

Value

$13.14

PnL

-$0.16

Record

73%

237-87 (324)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

Value

$8.1

PnL

+$0.1

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.97

Value

$4.41

PnL

+$0.44

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$1.26

Value

$1.4

PnL

+$0.14

Record

53%

2377-2113 (4490)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.9

Value

PnL

+$0.1

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 81%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Mature

34h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance82.3%

80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$21.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

121.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.