France vs. Türkiye: O/U 4.5

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 65¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over36¢Under64¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.7K

Combined PnL

-$52.23

Smart Money Entry

64.1¢ → 64.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over36%

Under65%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares2,646

Combined PnL-$49.72

Over4 traders

Total Value$492.78

Total Shares1,379

Combined PnL-$2.51

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0xheavy888	Underavg 64¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$48.86	56% 686-535 (1221)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 65¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$14.16	52% 2556-2350 (4906)
└ Under leg	Underavg 65¢	$927.91	$885.27	-$42.64
└ Over leg	Overavg 36¢	$512.64	$541.12	+$28.48
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 34.8¢	$744.6	$658.12	-$3.23	48% 4769-5064 (9833)
└ Over leg	Overavg 34.8¢	$393.15	$372.36	-$15.23
└ Under leg	Underavg 64.2¢	$273.76	$285.76	+$12
rafaleaooCTR	Overavg 35¢	$311.86	$307.41	-$4.46	6% 46-662 (708)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Underavg 63.5¢	$291.29	$255.66	-$3.12	48% 4016-4413 (8429)
└ Under leg	Underavg 63.5¢	$175.02	$170.92	-$4.6
└ Over leg	Overavg 37.3¢	$83.26	$84.74	+$1.48
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$198	-$2	64% 147-84 (231)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$122	+$22
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$76	-$24
nigiri99CTR	Overavg 38¢	$154.28	$154.28	+$0	50% 751-741 (1492)
RN1	Underavg 64.8¢	$123.05	$124.08	+$1.03	54% 6080-5160 (11240)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 65¢	$31.85	$29.89	-$1.96	57% 691-531 (1222)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 35.7¢	$25.36	$26.98	+$1.62	48% 2617-2816 (5433)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 65¢	$9.52	$9.59	+$0.07	46% 3371-3906 (7277)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$3.79	$4.11	+$0.32	21% 67-256 (323)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$1,536.54

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$48.86

Record

56%

686-535 (1221)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$1,440.55

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$14.16

Record

52%

2556-2350 (4906)

Both legs:

Under$927.9165¢-$42.64

Over$512.6436¢+$28.48

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$744.6

Value

$658.12

PnL

-$3.23

Record

48%

4769-5064 (9833)

Both legs:

Over$393.1534.8¢-$15.23

Under$273.7664.2¢+$12

rafaleaooCTR

Over

Invested

$311.86

Value

$307.41

PnL

-$4.46

Record

46-662 (708)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$291.29

Value

$255.66

PnL

-$3.12

Record

48%

4016-4413 (8429)

Both legs:

Under$175.0263.5¢-$4.6

Over$83.2637.3¢+$1.48

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$198

PnL

-$2

Record

64%

147-84 (231)

Both legs:

Invested

$154.28

Value

$154.28

PnL

+$0

Record

50%

751-741 (1492)

RN1

Under

Invested

$123.05

Value

$124.08

PnL

+$1.03

Record

54%

6080-5160 (11240)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.85

Value

$29.89

PnL

-$1.96

Record

57%

691-531 (1222)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$25.36

Value

$26.98

PnL

+$1.62

Record

48%

2617-2816 (5433)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.59

PnL

+$0.07

Record

46%

3371-3906 (7277)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.79

Value

$4.11

PnL

+$0.32

Record

21%

67-256 (323)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 65%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrOver 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.6%

64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$50.08

Max Loss

-$100.00

150.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.