France vs. Türkiye: O/U 3.5

2 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Over (25%) · Over at 54¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 25%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$4.1K

Combined PnL

-$6.26

Smart Money Entry

54¢ → 53.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,745

Combined PnL-$18.37

Under6 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares3,898

Combined PnL+$12.11

Over — 25%Under — 75%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RI RichieRicher	Overavg 54¢	$2.0K	$2.0K	-$18.49	55% 493-407 (900)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 46.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$10.73	49% 4576-4835 (9411)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 46¢	$337.08	$340.74	+$3.66	52% 2443-2220 (4663)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Overavg 50¢	$200	$199.99	-$0.01	65% 144-79 (223)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$107.99	+$7.99
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$92	-$8
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 46¢	$168.82	$170.66	+$1.84	48% 468-503 (971)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$96	$92	-$4	38% 1316-2144 (3460)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Overavg 52¢	$64.54	$65.83	+$1.29	56% 636-504 (1140)
└ Over leg	Overavg 52¢	$32.8	$33.75	+$0.95
└ Under leg	Underavg 46¢	$31.74	$32.09	+$0.35
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$17.9	$17.71	-$0.19	41% 1163-1648 (2811)
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 52¢	$11.36	$5.48	+$0.12	48% 3920-4262 (8182)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 47¢	$7.11	$1.92	+$0.07	53% 2282-2055 (4337)

RichieRicher

Over

Invested

$2,019.03

Value

$2.0K

PnL

-$18.49

Record

55%

493-407 (900)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,177.68

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$10.73

Record

49%

4576-4835 (9411)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$337.08

Value

$340.74

PnL

+$3.66

Record

52%

2443-2220 (4663)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Over

Invested

$200

Value

$199.99

PnL

-$0.01

Record

65%

144-79 (223)

Both legs:

Over$10050¢+$7.99

Under$10050¢-$8

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$168.82

Value

$170.66

PnL

+$1.84

Record

48%

468-503 (971)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$96

Value

$92

PnL

-$4

Record

38%

1316-2144 (3460)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Over

Invested

$64.54

Value

$65.83

PnL

+$1.29

Record

56%

636-504 (1140)

Both legs:

Invested

$17.9

Value

$17.71

PnL

-$0.19

Record

41%

1163-1648 (2811)

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$11.36

Value

$5.48

PnL

+$0.12

Record

48%

3920-4262 (8182)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.11

Value

$1.92

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

2282-2055 (4337)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 8 top traders (25%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

25% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 75% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.