Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (76%). 7 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

France vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5

7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (88%) · Under at 25¢ · $558 held · ends Nov 15

Over76¢Under24¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 88%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$558.35

Combined PnL

-$8.18

Smart Money Entry

25¢ → 24.5¢

-2% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over76%

Under25%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$347

Total Shares1,410

Combined PnL-$8.11

Over1 trader

Total Value$11.34

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$0.08

Under — 88%Over — 12%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 25¢	$287.24	$281.65	-$5.59	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
OV overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100	Underavg 50¢	$200	$200	+$0	64% 145-81 (226)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$100	$152	+$52
└ Under leg	Underavg 50¢	$100	$48	-$52
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$33.25	$31.92	-$1.33	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 25.1¢	$23.37	$22.54	-$0.83	56% 651-514 (1165)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 76¢	$11.42	$11.34	-$0.08	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Underavg 24¢	$4.22	$4.3	+$0.09	42% 548-747 (1295)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$3.2	$2.95	-$0.25	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 25.5¢	$2.58	$2.43	-$0.15	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$1.25	$1.2	-$0.05	41% 1175-1673 (2848)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$287.24

Value

$281.65

PnL

-$5.59

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

overtimemarkets.xyz-singlesARB<$100

Under

Invested

$200

Value

$200

PnL

+$0

Record

64%

145-81 (226)

Both legs:

Over$10050¢+$52

Under$10050¢-$52

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.25

Value

$31.92

PnL

-$1.33

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.37

Value

$22.54

PnL

-$0.83

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$11.42

Value

$11.34

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

GC-PCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.22

Value

$4.3

PnL

+$0.09

Record

42%

548-747 (1295)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.2

Value

$2.95

PnL

-$0.25

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.58

Value

$2.43

PnL

-$0.15

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.25

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

1175-1673 (2848)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 25%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 8 top traders (88%)Underdog side (market favors Over 76%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

88% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance26.4%

24.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$278.07

Max Loss

-$100.00

378.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.