Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (92%). 6 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

France vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5

6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (86%) · Under at 8.5¢ · $37 held · ends Nov 15

Over92¢Under8¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 86%

Total Value

$37.12

Combined PnL

-$2.26

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over92%

Under9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$34.73

Total Shares389

Combined PnL-$2.27

Over1 trader

Total Value$2.39

Total Shares3

Combined PnL+$0.01

Under — 86%Over — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 9.5¢	$15.43	$13.88	-$1.55	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 9.2¢	$6.95	$7.19	+$0.24	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$6.15	$5.54	-$0.62	47% 1204-1385 (2589)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$4.7	$4.23	-$0.47	50% 748-738 (1486)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 9¢	$3.26	$3.45	+$0.18	48% 490-523 (1013)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 90¢	$2.38	$2.39	+$0.01	46% 3336-3878 (7214)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.45	-$0.05	41% 1195-1702 (2897)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$15.43

Value

$13.88

PnL

-$1.55

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.95

Value

$7.19

PnL

+$0.24

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.15

Value

$5.54

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

1204-1385 (2589)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.23

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.26

Value

$3.45

PnL

+$0.18

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$2.38

Value

$2.39

PnL

+$0.01

Record

46%

3336-3878 (7214)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.05

Record

41%

1195-1702 (2897)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 7 top traders (86%)Underdog side (market favors Over 92%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

86% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Under 86% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance9.9%

8.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$907.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

1007.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.