Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (83%). 6 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

France vs. Türkiye: France O/U 1.5

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 18¢ · $959 held · ended Nov 15

Over83¢Under17¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$959.37

Combined PnL

$1.16

Smart Money Entry

26.6¢ → 17.5¢

-34% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over83%

Under18%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under6 traders

Total Value$685.27

Total Shares2,423

Combined PnL+$41.9

Over3 traders

Total Value$274.1

Total Shares465

Combined PnL-$40.74

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBallCTR	Underavg 18.4¢	$264.29	$437.47	+$173.17	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1	Overavg 68.1¢	$286.9	$248.54	-$38.36	50% 107-107 (214)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 39.5¢	$280.44	$173.97	-$106.47	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Underavg 35.6¢	$86.86	$59.82	-$27.04	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
LR lryyy<$100	Overavg 63¢	$13.86	$12.98	-$0.88	45% 1018-1224 (2242)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Overavg 66¢	$14.08	$12.58	-$1.49	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$6.02	$5.88	-$0.14	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 23¢	$3.11	$5.54	+$2.43	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 42¢	$2.65	$2.59	-$0.06	38% 1425-2328 (3753)

SnakeBallCTR

Under

Invested

$264.29

Value

$437.47

PnL

+$173.17

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

hedgevaultmainnet1

Over

Invested

$286.9

Value

$248.54

PnL

-$38.36

Record

50%

107-107 (214)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$280.44

Value

$173.97

PnL

-$106.47

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$86.86

Value

$59.82

PnL

-$27.04

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

lryyy<$100

Over

Invested

$13.86

Value

$12.98

PnL

-$0.88

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

topdogbigboi<$100

Over

Invested

$14.08

Value

$12.58

PnL

-$1.49

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.02

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0.14

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.11

Value

$5.54

PnL

+$2.43

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.65

Value

$2.59

PnL

-$0.06

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 18%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

6 of 9 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 83%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance19.3%

17.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$419.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

519.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.