Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold France, while the market favors Türkiye (56%). 7 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Spread: France (-2.5)

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold France (78%) · France at 44¢ · $860 held · ends Nov 15

France44¢Türkiye56¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

France

Consensus Traders

France 78%

Total Value

$860.24

Combined PnL

-$6.2

Smart Money Entry

43.2¢ → 43.5¢

+1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrance at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

France

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Türkiye 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

France44%

Türkiye56%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Türkiye2 traders

Total Value$399.27

Total Shares725

Combined PnL-$8.39

France7 traders

Total Value$460.97

Total Shares1,062

Combined PnL+$2.19

Türkiye — 22%France — 78%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Türkiyeavg 55.9¢	$326.88	$321.48	-$5.41	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR	Franceavg 44¢	$211.51	$209.11	-$2.4	50% 2840-2873 (5713)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Franceavg 42.9¢	$147.06	$149.13	+$2.07	49% 4635-4903 (9538)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Türkiyeavg 57.2¢	$80.78	$77.79	-$2.98	56% 651-514 (1165)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Franceavg 41.2¢	$57.05	$59.53	+$2.49	38% 1317-2168 (3485)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Franceavg 42.8¢	$21.23	$21.55	+$0.33	41% 1174-1671 (2845)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Franceavg 44¢	$14.82	$14.48	-$0.34	37% 1335-2230 (3565)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Franceavg 43¢	$6.45	$6.45	+$0	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Franceavg 40¢	$0.67	$0.72	+$0.05	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

GoalLineGhost

Türkiye

Invested

$326.88

Value

$321.48

PnL

-$5.41

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR

France

Invested

$211.51

Value

$209.11

PnL

-$2.4

Record

50%

2840-2873 (5713)

FlaznorpCTR

France

Invested

$147.06

Value

$149.13

PnL

+$2.07

Record

49%

4635-4903 (9538)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$80.78

Value

$77.79

PnL

-$2.98

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

LimousinCTR<$100

France

Invested

$57.05

Value

$59.53

PnL

+$2.49

Record

38%

1317-2168 (3485)

sentrioCTR<$100

France

Invested

$21.23

Value

$21.55

PnL

+$0.33

Record

41%

1174-1671 (2845)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

France

Invested

$14.82

Value

$14.48

PnL

-$0.34

Record

37%

1335-2230 (3565)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

France

Invested

$6.45

Value

$6.45

PnL

+$0

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

ghorrockCTR<$100

France

Invested

$0.67

Value

$0.72

PnL

+$0.05

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralFrance at 44%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

France

7 of 9 top traders (78%)Underdog side (market favors Türkiye 56%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that France wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance45.7%

43.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$118.65

Max Loss

-$100.00

218.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.