Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Türkiye, while the market favors France (63%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: France (-1.5)

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Türkiye (56%) · Türkiye at 38¢ · $252 held · ends Nov 15

France63¢Türkiye37¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Türkiye

Consensus Traders

Türkiye 56%

Total Value

$252.13

Combined PnL

-$1.76

Smart Money Entry

38¢ → 37.5¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralTürkiye at 38%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors France 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

France63%

Türkiye38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

France4 traders

Total Value$143.58

Total Shares214

Combined PnL-$0.82

Türkiye5 traders

Total Value$108.55

Total Shares288

Combined PnL-$0.94

France — 44%Türkiye — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFrance 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Türkiye 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Franceavg 62¢	$89.52	$90.24	+$0.72	53% 2421-2179 (4600)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 38.1¢	$60.52	$59.55	-$0.97	48% 3662-4031 (7693)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 37.3¢	$35.04	$35.68	+$0.64	48% 4388-4660 (9048)
OD Oddstorm<$100	Franceavg 68¢	$27.27	$27	-$0.27	35% 129-237 (366)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Franceavg 67¢	$18.09	$16.74	-$1.35	16% 55-297 (352)
SU suntori<$100	Franceavg 62¢	$9.52	$9.6	+$0.08	46% 3003-3542 (6545)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 40¢	$6.67	$6.33	-$0.33	56% 621-486 (1107)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 40¢	$4.91	$4.66	-$0.25	41% 1132-1606 (2738)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 38¢	$2.36	$2.33	-$0.03	53% 2122-1900 (4022)

GoalLineGhost<$100

France

Invested

$89.52

Value

$90.24

PnL

+$0.72

Record

53%

2421-2179 (4600)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$60.52

Value

$59.55

PnL

-$0.97

Record

48%

3662-4031 (7693)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$35.04

Value

$35.68

PnL

+$0.64

Record

48%

4388-4660 (9048)

Oddstorm<$100

France

Invested

$27.27

Value

$27

PnL

-$0.27

Record

35%

129-237 (366)

rayvanmechelen<$100

France

Invested

$18.09

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$1.35

Record

16%

55-297 (352)

suntori<$100

France

Invested

$9.52

Value

$9.6

PnL

+$0.08

Record

46%

3003-3542 (6545)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$6.67

Value

$6.33

PnL

-$0.33

Record

56%

621-486 (1107)

sentrioCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$4.91

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$0.25

Record

41%

1132-1606 (2738)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$2.36

Value

$2.33

PnL

-$0.03

Record

53%

2122-1900 (4022)

Research grade

NeutralTürkiye at 38%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors France 63%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 81%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Türkiye. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrFrance 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Türkiye 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Türkiye wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance39.7%

37.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$151.99

Max Loss

-$100.00

252.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.