Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Türkiye, while the market favors France (98%). 6 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Spread: Türkiye (-1.5)

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Türkiye (75%) · Türkiye at 1.8¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 15

Türkiye2¢France98¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Türkiye

Consensus Traders

Türkiye 75%

Total Value

$3.8K

Combined PnL

$301.53

Smart Money Entry

1.6¢ → 1.8¢

+15% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

AvoidTürkiye at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors France 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Türkiye2%

France98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Türkiye6 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares160,133

Combined PnL+$285.52

France2 traders

Total Value$744.55

Total Shares653

Combined PnL+$16.01

Türkiye — 75%France — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Türkiyeavg 1.5¢	$1.4K	$1.6K	+$169.83	48% 490-523 (1013)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Türkiyeavg 1.7¢	$972.43	$1.0K	+$58.91	38% 1375-2257 (3632)
GO GoalLineGhost	Franceavg 98¢	$628.51	$644.32	+$15.81	52% 2510-2301 (4811)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Türkiyeavg 1.5¢	$349.34	$407.56	+$58.22	49% 4712-4983 (9695)
38 38791873984189	Franceavg 98.3¢	$100.03	$100.22	+$0.2	48% 3997-4384 (8381)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 1.8¢	$12.98	$11.72	-$1.26	44% 339-425 (764)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 1.7¢	$9.2	$8.93	-$0.27	38% 1375-2208 (3583)
nigiri99CTR<$100	Türkiyeavg 1.7¢	$1.54	$1.63	+$0.09	50% 748-738 (1486)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Türkiye

Invested

$1,410.46

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$169.83

Record

48%

490-523 (1013)

LightParadoxCTR

Türkiye

Invested

$972.43

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$58.91

Record

38%

1375-2257 (3632)

GoalLineGhost

France

Invested

$628.51

Value

$644.32

PnL

+$15.81

Record

52%

2510-2301 (4811)

FlaznorpCTR

Türkiye

Invested

$349.34

Value

$407.56

PnL

+$58.22

Record

49%

4712-4983 (9695)

38791873984189

France

Invested

$100.03

Value

$100.22

PnL

+$0.2

Record

48%

3997-4384 (8381)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$12.98

Value

$11.72

PnL

-$1.26

Record

44%

339-425 (764)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$9.2

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$0.27

Record

38%

1375-2208 (3583)

nigiri99CTR<$100

Türkiye

Invested

$1.54

Value

$1.63

PnL

+$0.09

Record

50%

748-738 (1486)

Research grade

AvoidTürkiye at 2%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Türkiye

6 of 8 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors France 98%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Türkiye wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance2.9%

1.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3305.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

3405.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.