France leading at halftime?

10 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 100¢ · $13K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 56%

Total Value

$12.6K

Combined PnL

$3.8K

Smart Money Entry

55.6¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$11.9K

Total Shares11,884

Combined PnL+$4.2K

Yes8 traders

Total Value$715.55

Total Shares2,861

Combined PnL-$440.17

No — 56%Yes — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 43.8¢	$2.5K	$5.3K	+$2.8K	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 66.1¢	$4.4K	$5.1K	+$899.18	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 68.9¢	$596.63	$865.54	+$268.91	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
RN1CTR	Yesavg 29.4¢	$993.82	$691.05	-$302.77	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 39.1¢	$101.36	$259.28	+$157.92	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
LI Limousin	Noavg 71.3¢	$156.5	$219.52	+$63.02	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 48.5¢	$48.76	$100.39	+$51.63	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
dips.<$100	Noavg 42¢	$13.02	$30.98	+$17.96	48% 1342-1442 (2784)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 33¢	$9.85	$29.84	+$19.99	59% 3971-2747 (6718)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.1¢	$89.46	$17.63	-$71.83	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 71¢	$7.9	$11.11	+$3.22	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 38¢	$4.29	$10.96	+$6.67	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 46.2¢	$330.72	$5.99	-$18.28	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$13.17	$0.82	-$12.35	47% 507-561 (1068)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 23¢	$16.62	$0.04	-$16.59	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
TH thatsabing0CTR<$100	Yesavg 59¢	$8.39	$0.01	-$8.38	62% 287-176 (463)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 47.5¢	$4.75	$0.01	-$4.75	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$5.23	$0	-$5.23	46% 3397-3944 (7341)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,516.75

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$2.8K

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

Flaznorp

Invested

$4,408.08

Value

$5.1K

PnL

+$899.18

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

LightParadox

Invested

$596.63

Value

$865.54

PnL

+$268.91

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

RN1CTR

Yes

Invested

$993.82

Value

$691.05

PnL

-$302.77

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

SnakeBall

Invested

$101.36

Value

$259.28

PnL

+$157.92

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Limousin

Invested

$156.5

Value

$219.52

PnL

+$63.02

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTime

Invested

$48.76

Value

$100.39

PnL

+$51.63

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

dips.<$100

Invested

$13.02

Value

$30.98

PnL

+$17.96

Record

48%

1342-1442 (2784)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$29.84

PnL

+$19.99

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$89.46

Value

$17.63

PnL

-$71.83

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$7.9

Value

$11.11

PnL

+$3.22

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$4.29

Value

$10.96

PnL

+$6.67

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$330.72

Value

$5.99

PnL

-$18.28

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.17

Value

$0.82

PnL

-$12.35

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.62

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$16.59

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

thatsabing0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.39

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.38

Record

62%

287-176 (463)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.75

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$4.75

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.23

Value

PnL

-$5.23

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 18 top traders (56%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-19 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (18 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.