France vs. Türkiye: Draw at halftime?

9 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (69%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 69%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$67.41

Smart Money Entry

78.2¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes9 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,418

Combined PnL+$366.59

No4 traders

Total Value$0.97

Total Shares1,670

Combined PnL-$299.18

Yes — 69%No — 31%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Yesavg 80.7¢	$1.2K	$1.4K	+$153.54	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
MA MadridTime	Yesavg 83.9¢	$326.22	$388.44	+$62.22	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
LI Limousin	Yesavg 87.6¢	$143.08	$163.31	+$20.23	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
VE Venusian	Yesavg 68.6¢	$100.62	$146.64	+$46.02	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
TO topdogbigboi	Yesavg 63¢	$141.05	$116.26	-$24.79	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
LI LightParadox<$100	Yesavg 70.4¢	$57.79	$82.08	+$24.29	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100	Yesavg 43.5¢	$28.42	$65.36	+$36.94	30% 106-248 (354)
SU suntori	Yesavg 78.1¢	$119.34	$36.62	+$33.74	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$5.59	$19.99	+$14.41	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
RN1CTR	Noavg 20.8¢	$318.51	$0.77	-$317.74	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 71¢	$2.45	$0.14	-$2.31	57% 702-540 (1242)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 27.9¢	$73.14	$0.05	+$28.91	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Noavg 33¢	$8.05	$0.01	-$8.04	45% 1018-1224 (2242)

Flaznorp

Yes

Invested

$1,244.75

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$153.54

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

MadridTime

Yes

Invested

$326.22

Value

$388.44

PnL

+$62.22

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

Limousin

Yes

Invested

$143.08

Value

$163.31

PnL

+$20.23

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

Venusian

Yes

Invested

$100.62

Value

$146.64

PnL

+$46.02

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

topdogbigboi

Yes

Invested

$141.05

Value

$116.26

PnL

-$24.79

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

LightParadox<$100

Yes

Invested

$57.79

Value

$82.08

PnL

+$24.29

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.42

Value

$65.36

PnL

+$36.94

Record

30%

106-248 (354)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$119.34

Value

$36.62

PnL

+$33.74

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.59

Value

$19.99

PnL

+$14.41

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

RN1CTR

Invested

$318.51

Value

$0.77

PnL

-$317.74

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$2.45

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$2.31

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$73.14

Value

$0.05

PnL

+$28.91

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

lryyyCTR<$100

Invested

$8.05

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$8.04

Record

45%

1018-1224 (2242)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

9 of 13 top traders (69%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

69% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on No) and the top 1000 (13 on Yes) disagree here.

ctrYes 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.