Türkiye leading at halftime?

6 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (46%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 15

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 46%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$48.01

Smart Money Entry

94.8¢ → 100¢

+5% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,370

Combined PnL+$103.5

Yes7 traders

Total Value$7.99

Total Shares553

Combined PnL-$55.49

No — 46%Yes — 54%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 94.4¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$81.1	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
LI Limousin	Noavg 95.4¢	$333.94	$349.85	+$15.91	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97¢	$311.86	$321.34	+$9.48	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Noavg 90¢	$39.33	$42.39	+$3.06	47% 507-561 (1068)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 91¢	$34.99	$37.3	+$2.31	57% 702-540 (1242)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 94¢	$23.3	$14.94	-$8.36	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 21.3¢	$180.7	$6.05	-$40.64	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$4.76	$1.75	-$3.01	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$8.06	$0.14	-$7.92	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$1.56	$0.03	-$1.53	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$0.42	$0.01	-$0.41	53% 7602-6693 (14295)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.3¢	$7.71	$0.01	-$1.18	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$0.8	$0.01	-$0.8	59% 3971-2747 (6718)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,520.08

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$81.1

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

Limousin

Invested

$333.94

Value

$349.85

PnL

+$15.91

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

MadridTime

Invested

$311.86

Value

$321.34

PnL

+$9.48

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Invested

$39.33

Value

$42.39

PnL

+$3.06

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$34.99

Value

$37.3

PnL

+$2.31

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$23.3

Value

$14.94

PnL

-$8.36

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$180.7

Value

$6.05

PnL

-$40.64

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$1.75

PnL

-$3.01

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.06

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$7.92

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.56

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$1.53

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.42

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.41

Record

53%

7602-6693 (14295)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.71

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$1.18

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.01

PnL

-$0.8

Record

59%

3971-2747 (6718)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 13 top traders (46%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

46% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 54% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.